Discussion in 'Economics' started by Thunderdog, Mar 8, 2004.
This will be 1929 or 1987 type scenario for sure.
Basic econ: "What's more, such a rate hike would probably cause another recession, by stifling borrowing and slamming financial markets."
"Some other economists, generally among the more optimistic, have been calling on the Fed to raise rates but for a different reason -- namely, that good old-fashioned, garden-variety inflation is coming down the pike." ----- I think the good old-fashioned garden-variety economists should keep their traps shut since everytime they say something the opposite happens. ( I recall a recession that was suppose to happen in 1999 and boomtimes in 2000. Shut your hole, your embarassing those who do their homework.)
"This week marks the fourth anniversary of Nasdaq 5,000. Have we learned anything?" ---What a strange trip.
Roach has been looking at numbers too long. He obviously needs a nice long vacation to the funny farm.
Wouldn't Alan & Co. be tightening a bit before they raise the rates?
"The popping of the last asset-price bubble -- namely, in stocks -- led to the 2001 recession and has been followed by abnormally sluggish job growth for a recovery.
If another asset-price bubble were to build and pop -- and Roach worries that real-estate markets, stock prices and Treasury prices are in danger of over-inflating now -- the effects would be much more painful, leaving the United States looking like Japan in the 1990s, in a post-bubble deflationary spiral, with the Fed helpless to intervene, he argues. "
How wonderfull they are: the bubble has already been created they pretend that it doesn't exist and that they need to prevent it by poping up interest rate. What hypocrisis: as usual they create inflation and then deflation. Once again just their silly game that even a child can understand see http://www.inflationdeflation.com/
there isnt one.Its not that Alan and the fed wont raise interest rates,they can't.Any meaningful rate increase would suffocate the already struggling economy.I think they'll actually lower rates when it becomes clear,that despite all the previous rate cuts,the recent tax cuts,and all the other stimulous, of which there is a mountain,is insufficient to keep the economy growing, albeit by artificial means.All the stimulous the fed has produced has increased the average household disposable income to 3% from 0.(disposable income was even dipping into the negative numbers).Disposable income in 1990 was almost 50%.I find it hard to believe that there are many who still think that this will be a prolonged bull mark,when the consumers ability to consume is so greatly diminished on a comparative basis.
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