Discussion in 'Trading' started by a529612, Dec 11, 2006.
Sell the news or panic buying by the underinvested fund jockies?
Bernanke going to be hawkish and may raise rates. Good to be in cash right now.
Bernanke has a depression era and tech bubble thesis. He believes its better to raise rates sooner then to deal with the effects later.
Either he will maintain rates and add some hawkish speech or raise it another quarter.
From an economic point of view, its better that he raise another quarter. Too much froth in the real estate and stock market still.
Opec going to come in the day after and cut off production. Iran wants 70 per barrel along with the rest of them.
If Bernanke doesnt sink the market, OPEC will.
Mass layoffs at end of year, employment report in January will be a wreck.
I am pretty sure of one thing - this is going to be the most boring meeting in some time. The statement will be an exact copy from October. Bonds will neither sell off (because they already did) nor immediately rally (because of CPI on Friday)...
The only suspense is how Lacker will vote.
true - my bet would be "against" again. nothing changed to change his opinion....(low rates, high PCE/CPI etc.)
Rates will stay where they are. Like I said before he is going to recycle the same wording he has for the past 6 months. Nothing new will come out of this meeting.
The financial market is pricing in a Fed easing by June, and this fits with the general consensus of Wall Street economists.
Now what if Bernanke doesnt cut the rates, which I think he wont. I bet his uncomfortable with the fact that Wall Street seems to be in a bubble.
I say he gives one more good old fashioned tightening. However, the only way to stop the recession from taking place is to drop rates at tommorrows meeting.
There will be no easing at tomorrows meeting. If he does by some odd circumstance expect the markets to rally 2% but im saying 0000000% chance.
i think they will stay the course despite the fact bernacke has been yapping about inflation and the dollar is tu-anking...
if they did anything - raise or decrease - man would that be a shitstorm...
What if he keeps the rates unchanged this time but says he's concerned about inflation and wouldn't hesistate to raise rates down the road?
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