Are these purely technical based signals or do they incorporate common sense, fundamentals, etc? I ask because from a common sense point of view I'd say things could go either way. They could have positive things to say but not do anything about interest rates in which case the market will move up or they could have positive things to say and hint at raising interest rates and the dollar could blast off killing the ES. Based on other economic information from the week I can't see them saying anything substantially negative. So this seems like a 50/50 situation. If I wanted to guess and gamble though I'd probably gamble long, not short. But most likely I'd stand aside this one.
It is pure mathematical wizardry, trying to calculate the path of least resistance. I have a dream of placing one gutsy trade around FOMC day and cashing in big. Unfortunately, it is looking pretty useless: