This is a simple journal - I make a call, one day ahead of time, if FOMC day will close higher or lower. Everyone feel free to post your own predictions. My method was developed with a couple of years of data. It has been accurate, but will need some more forward-testing before I trade with size. Just for fun, I trade 1 YM contract, entering long/short at the close, 200 point stop loss. If not profitable after FOMC day, I will hold for one more day (always subject to the stop). First call is coming up ....
Sold the YM contract for 322 point gain Next post September 15th! (I'm too lazy to keep a real journal)
A fixed stop loss is tough with all the volatility ..... probably better to do a stop and reenter. So if I am long from X, stop loss will be at (X-80) and reenter at (X-30) If I am short from X, stop loss will be at (X+80) and reenter at (X+30)
Trade was looking good in the morning, but stopped for -80 points, re-entered short and stopped for -50. Trade is still good for tommorow, I have a sell stop on the YM at 10982. Things could get ugly tommorow. Hoping it doesn't gap way down and I get a bad fill.
The short triggered in premarket, and with all the news flying around, was stopped out for a 50 point loss. The short triggered again, and I rode it all day for a 373 point profit. Overall the direction was right, but with the volatility it was tough to stay with the trade. Another stop-out and I would have given up. I want to keep the risk within about 200 points. Net gain on the trade was 193 points. Here is a chart. Middle day is FOMC day.
Nooo .... the last minute surge flipped my indicator. I am getting short at the close! Not so sure about this one.