FOMC journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by promagma, Aug 4, 2008.

  1. promagma


    This is a simple journal - I make a call, one day ahead of time, if FOMC day will close higher or lower.

    Everyone feel free to post your own predictions.

    My method was developed with a couple of years of data. It has been accurate, but will need some more forward-testing before I trade with size. Just for fun, I trade 1 YM contract, entering long/short at the close, 200 point stop loss. If not profitable after FOMC day, I will hold for one more day (always subject to the stop).

    First call is coming up ....
  2. promagma


    First call is LONG @ today's close.

    Back up the truck, people!
  3. promagma


    Sold the YM contract for 322 point gain :)

    Next post September 15th!

    (I'm too lazy to keep a real journal)
  4. promagma


    A fixed stop loss is tough with all the volatility ..... probably better to do a stop and reenter.

    So if I am long from X, stop loss will be at (X-80) and reenter at (X-30)
    If I am short from X, stop loss will be at (X+80) and reenter at (X+30)
  5. promagma


    I will be going SHORT at the close

    Run for the hills!
  6. promagma


    Trade was looking good in the morning, but stopped for -80 points, re-entered short and stopped for -50.

    Trade is still good for tommorow, I have a sell stop on the YM at 10982. Things could get ugly tommorow. Hoping it doesn't gap way down and I get a bad fill.
  7. promagma


    The short triggered in premarket, and with all the news flying around, was stopped out for a 50 point loss. The short triggered again, and I rode it all day for a 373 point profit. Overall the direction was right, but with the volatility it was tough to stay with the trade. Another stop-out and I would have given up. I want to keep the risk within about 200 points.

    Net gain on the trade was 193 points.

    Here is a chart. Middle day is FOMC day.

  8. Interesting and good work
  9. promagma


    FOMC time ....

    I am getting long for tomorrow.
  10. promagma


    Nooo .... the last minute surge flipped my indicator. I am getting short at the close!

    Not so sure about this one.
    #10     Oct 28, 2008