I'd like to share a few things to everyone, thank you for your patience. Have you ever woke up to get knocked to the floor by a 2x4 ? Somebody was strong enough and honest to tell me and confirm a few things, thank-you. Here's some of my reply that I also believe I need to share with you all. I spent most of the night awake, praying. Not to ask why no profits, I hope you believe I'm at least past that, even with my failings. God answered I believe. First through the admittance to my wife about a 55pt loss, just that could have been a very bad time. God was graceful and gave her a soft heart not to attack me, but to comfort. He also showed me my sin (wrong) of only seeing the immediate and not the long term, trying to fix it myself and not trusting Him. I've asked forgiveness from Him, and now I need to ask forgiveness from my brothers/sisters in Christ for my selfishness and not for trusting the Lord my God. Maybe I did set myself up in the beginning, by using a totally different style of trading from what I'm use to. I believe I had a peace in the beginning about following through with it, and to be honest I still do. So, I will carry on doing what I started out to do, and follow my set plan, profit or loss (profit/loss wasn't the reason for the set plan per say, it was to be a learning/education experience), because I think it is what I'm suppose to do and see what God wanted to teach me. Thank you for all for your encouraging notes (even if some hurt I started off this thread also wanting to show others that they can have strength , peace in Jesus Christ, just because I took my eyes off Him, please don't think that strength and peace is not there, He promised, "He will never leave us or forsake us." He hasn't !! Right now I'm putting my trust back where it belongs. Andy. By going through the door the Lord has shown me, is the only way to see where He's taking me.
Hi all, sorry for posting late, had to pick family up from the airport, even had to get my wonderful wife to close out positions at 4pm Followed the plan fully Went short at 11.07 (853), sadly a point off the bottom. Then rode it up reversing at 1.09pm (872). Had to leave the house just after 2pm, left the 20pt trailing stop in place and showed my wife how to close out just incase I couldn't contact her (bad cell phone) anyway called her just before the close, and walked her through the closing, out at (882.5) For the day, 1st trade -19pt's, 2nd trade + 10.5pts, total for the day -8.5pts. All in all a lot better day, emotionally and especially spiritually. Thank you all for you support. Most of all praise to God who showed Himself merciful and gracious. Not forgetting my wife for closing out Have a great evening, Andy
If you are having some difficulty pulling the trigger for signals given by a mechanical system, maybe consider integrating the signals into a fully auto-executed system. Efloortrade offers autoexec through their software. I've heard viper trading offers something similar. Dynastore software released a freeware version which will link IB TWS to Tradestation or Esignal. This way, it's your pc's job to trade and your job to make sure the pc is up and running Cheers, Rich P.S. If you haven't coded your mechanical system for testing/automation, let me know and I might be able to help (with Tradestation, anyway).
andy, i'll try to describe my few thoughts on this here. 1) a question has been raised of whether your backtest length was sufficient. in my opinion it wasn't. also did you forward test at all? meaning run the sytem on data that was NOT used to design it? forward testing is essential. 2) now <b>despite of</b> what i said in #1, i think you should continue trading the system. and here's why: - before you decided to start trading the system, you had complete faith in the system. your plan was to trade it like a robot, for better or worse. great plan. now there's a question of "when do i stop if it keeps losing and losing?" a good answer has been given here on this thread. look at the historical maximum drawdown in points and/or %. multiply that by 2. stick with your system like a lion, until DD exceeds that value. If it does, that's when you put the system aside. all mechanical systems experience drawdowns. it is NORMAL. now there's nothing that will guarantee you that the DD won't happen when you start trading the system. Sometimes it starts right away, sometimes after a comfortable cushion of profits was built up. It has been shown by research that absolute majority of people quit trading the system if the DD hits when they start trading, many even drop it after 3 consecutive losers. Such behavior is simply lack of discipline and a psychological weakness. - i hope you're trading with RISK capital. I read somewhere on the Internet that before you commit $10K to trading, you should first put that cash in your fireplace and watch it slowly burn. Then take another $10K and you can give trading a try. Back when I read that I thought that's a silly advice. Now i see it as wise. So your system might fail and hit its 2X max DD. And that's OK! And you'll have to ACCEPT that and... pick yourself up and take another shot at it. There's a good chance your system will fail; there's a good chance it won't. But if you quit now, you can't call yourself a trader. And lastly, don't let losses pound you psychologically. It's <b>OK</b> to fail, and try again. It's very NOT OK to be a psychological weakling.
traderkay, You make some good points, but I don't think it is a sign of weakness for him to step back and reevaluate matters. He doesn't have to prove anything to himself or us. This game is about money, nothing else.
Hi All, tough day, but only be Gods strength I stayed true and followed the plan. Went short at about 10.45 (885.5) Watched it go against me about 10points, but then it sold off nicely. Watched pretty much all day (ran papertests on a shorter timeframe system) Around the 2pm time, I saw the change in lower lows to higher lows, but sat tight and let the system work. T-stops were place when I had gone short so it really is just watching and waiting. Just after 3pm it finally run up to my t-stop, covered short and put me long (883) Still impressed with IB t-stops. I got to watch the next 20min's while it seemed the NQ just couldn't close above it's 200EMA (not a good sign) Proving what I was thinking right, and it sold off, came back a little near the end, closed out at 877.5, just before a quick spike up :-( For the day 1st trade +2.5pts, 2nd trade - 5.5pts total for day -3pts. Today was tough to watch being up over 20pts at one time, but I set out to follow the set plan, and followed it I did. Believe it or not I think I am learning tons of stuff, the system does allow me to actually watch the market. Have a super evening, Andy p.s. I'm already hiding behind my chair from the responses I may get for letting a 20pt gain slide away, though for those who follow systems I'm hoping you at least understand. I have a peace about following the set system, I want to follow the set system, and it's not through my own strength can I do this, I can't but help give praise to God for being able to follow through with it. Please understand this is what I need to do/complete at this time. Thank you.
Andy, what kind of profit do you intend to gain if you are giving up 20 pts? It is not realistic to catch a trend midway (your reversals) and expect 40 pts intraday. I expect I am missing something, but how many big gainers have you booked to go with these big drawdowns and lost profits? I'm sorry, but I really don't see giving up ALL of a 20 pt gain. Maybe half, but not ALL! Just my thoughts,