I stopped using COT back in the mid ninties as my outlook changed from daily charts to weekly, monthly and yearly. I will always be on the right side of the COT before the market ever shows it hand. By watching the past 9-20 years on monthly bar charts, I start selling new contracts highs/buying new contracts lows and depending on volatily I will hedge with short term options. Recently been selling Corn, Sept, Dec, Mar. I am still long NatGas. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=233834&perpage=6&pagenumber=18
why this one has 400% potential http://www.google.com/finance?q=LON:LCOC while the rest around 50-70% ?
Today, the level @ 1397 is very important! However, it's up to YOU how you interpret the signal! Trade it whichever way you please just make sure you are profitable.. More tomorrow
I’m sorry that you couldn’t understand my earlier reply (07-17-12) and you could still not accept my desire not to give any specific strategy recommendations in this thread. My goal is to introduce the Commitments of Traders report and some tools to analyze it, nothing less, nothing more. You are correct; I will not show any strategy. If you think that because of this, my thread is a waste of time, you are free to leave. I think that the examples I have brought and the ones that are a head of us should be value to others. I’ve given some instruction how to look at these examples and showed how I do my historical analysis. I believe a proper way to use Elite Trader is not to stick to one thread, rather to exploit the treasures from more threads. To give you an example, maybe if you saw my post on Wheat, where there is a COT extreme picture, that is pretty obvious to be a bearish picture, one might move on to another thread that discusses option strategies. Maybe then he will figure, that a good way to take advantage of the signal is to start selling OTM Calls on Wheat or to buy Puts… or some kind of a combination of the two etc… Don’t be lazy, do your research and stop waiting for live calls. Do your own homework. My intention with this thread is not push anyone towards subscribing to the service I use, but please accept the fact that they use a unique analysis method that I consider valuable and which cannot be found elsewhere (but correct me if I’m wrong, I would gladly look at other valuable services that do analysis on the Commitments of Traders report in such a way). By the way, the webpage you are referring to shows all the COT reports for free on all markets. It is just the Analysis pages that are connected to a subscription service. For those who would like to see a brief picture of the COT report for the market they analyze they don’t even have to subscribe to anything. I’m sorry to give the impression of being an affiliate to the service…
You are absolutely right, ETFs have inbuilt costs, no question. I’m not saying that trading with them is as valuable as with futures contracts or options on them, but for those traders, who have a small margin on their account, it could be an alternative. Do I look excited? hmmm… I had a coffee an hour ago, maybe I made it too strong
If you are saying that knowing for example that Commercials on the Chicago Wheat are net short 40.000 futures contracts and that Large Speculators are holding so many contracts net long as never before that this information is irrelevant, or to use your words, worthless… well that is your view. In my view COT report is very much different from any technical indicator. I would say that someone who uses COT analysis in his trading stands closer to a Fundamental approach than one using purely technical indicators. Properly integrated in your system, I believe that COT analysis can give you an edge, at least that is my experience.
Hi there. Thank you for this. It helps. I invest gold and I think this post help me to be more successful. Just what I feel after learning in the videos I found at Gold Trading Academy.