That is interesting! That’s lot of data on positions of various people and can definitely serve as a guide. If we try to merge this data with the end result as to when the trade closes, I would assume, the large speculators would make more money than the smaller ones. Also, what is the role of insiders in all this?
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. New Zealand Dollar COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS – 42% / Not only do we have a very large change in Traders positions, with this move we have gone much closer towards a significant bearish cot extreme. Silver COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / All Time bullish cot extreme in Silver. Do I need to say more?? Sugar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Here we need to be a bit more careful… As you may see on the chart, we have had significant bullish extreme in the market for a loooong time, but the downtrend did not stop. This signal from the report simply underlines the importance of keeping in mind that there is a never before seen stress level in Sugar that will eventually pop and we will see higher prices. This could start tomorrow, but it may also take many months before something happens. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts Futures Trading
Hi Carlll, Sorry, I didn't see your post... Truly LS are the ones who are driving the Trend, so they are more profitable, no question. Of course this is understandable since they are "speculating" while Commercials are mainly in the market for hedging their normal business activities. I don't really understand who you are referring to as insiders... CFTC publishes these reports and it is available on their site. All the best, Dunstan
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-500 COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS – 56% / COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / Both of our main COT signals are giving us bearish signs in the market. Huge changes in Commercials and in Large Specs positions combined with an All Time cot extreme signal in LS (despite the decline in the market we have witnessed the last 2 monhts). Silver COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / Not much change since last week… LS further increased their net short position. Sugar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Similarly to Silver, the stress level in the market has increased, the bullish cot extreme became even more significant, yet prices further declined. This underlines my caution advice I made last week. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts Futures Trading
Correct me if I'm wrong, but that report is showing that not only are large specs net long, but they have substantially increased their positions, yes? Where are the bearish signals that you're suggesting?
Nicely done , Dunstan... Iv`e been reading the COT since `99, when I traded on my firms trading desk, as it offers lots of quality info for those that know how to read it & decipher it. Keep them coming,D!
Hi mbondy, I guess you were referring to S&P-500... Yes, you are correct, LS have increased their net long positions, but (!) let's not forget about the important fact --> LS are the ones pushing the trend, but as they reach an extreme position /as the one now/, obviously we can expect the Trend to change. So the question you should be asking is: Ok, LS are buying buying and buying... for how long can this go on? COT history (in case of S&P it is 22 years) shows that Large Speculators have never held sooooo much contracts LONG, they have never been as bullish as they are now. So question is: should we expect this buying power to stay as it is? COT history show that at the end of a major trend, major participants of the markets are usually holding extreme amount of contracts in one direction --> this is called a COT Extreme. So to answer your qestion "Where are the bearish signals that you're suggesting?" --> From the facts above. I hope I could help you clarify all this. All the best, Dunstan
Hi Spooz Top 2, I am always glad to meet other Traders, who have similarly good experience with using the COT report in their trading All the best, Dunstan
Yes, okay, that's kind of what I thought you were going to say. The only caveat I would add is that it is not solely large specs who are pushing the trend - commercials who are hedging short are the fodder for the long buying by LS, and vice versa. Without continued cooperation on both sides, there would be no trend continuation.