Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Dunstan, Jul 11, 2012.

  1. themickey

    themickey

    #351     Sep 25, 2017
  2. Dunstan

    Dunstan

    Hi everyone,

    The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

    S&P-400
    COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 17%, SS – 37% /
    COT Index (5y) / C – 8%, LS – 85% /
    Both major cot signals are pointing downwards: the large change in traders positions at such price levels suggest a bit of a pullback early this week, but the bearish cot extreme also indicates that chances of a stable continuation of the rally is decreasing.

    Heating Oil
    COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
    Get ready for a top… The picture can’t be any clearer:)

    Canadian Dollar
    COT Extreme / C - 244, LS – 254 report COT extreme /
    Here we have a bearish extreme plus 3 week decline already which proves that the signal can be considered effective. We could experience a rebound, but in the medium to long term time horizon, I’d be betting on lower prices.

    All the best,
    Dunstan

    COT Charts
     
    #352     Oct 2, 2017
  3. amin

    amin

    Hello everyone and I am new here...
    CAD should be weak........am I right???
     
    #353     Oct 2, 2017
  4. Grantx

    Grantx

    This is interesting stuff. Does COT analysis help you with longer term swing trading?
     
    #354     Oct 2, 2017
  5. Dunstan

    Dunstan

    Hi Amin,

    I would say that based on the bearish cot extreme we see in the cot report for the Canadian Dollar, we have a higher chance for prices going lower in the medium-long term time horizon --> next weeks, months. It is harder to say what is going to happen in the near term (next few days, 1-2 weeks). If you look at similar cases (large bearish cot extremes) in the past, you can find that the majority of time the price of the CAD reacted to these extreme signals.

    All the best,
    Dunstan
     
    #355     Oct 3, 2017
  6. Dunstan

    Dunstan

    Hi Grantx,

    My answer to your question is: Yes, absolutely! To tell you the truth, I'd say that cot analysis is best used with longer term trading strategies. Don't forget, we are talking about a weekly data... COT change signals (sudden changes in Trader's positions), could be helpful in the near term, but in my experience these signals are not as effective as COT extreme signals.

    All the best,
    Dunstan
     
    #356     Oct 3, 2017
    Grantx likes this.
  7. amin

    amin

    Thanks for you reply
     
    #357     Oct 3, 2017
  8. Farmas

    Farmas

    Very good analyst, I liked it. Here everything is filed in detail and on the case. But I am guided by forecasts from different resources. Here too it is quite good http://topbrokers.com/ And the rating of brokers can be found.
     
    #358     Oct 9, 2017
  9. Dunstan

    Dunstan

    Hi everyone,

    The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

    30-Year Bond
    COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 27%, SS – 16% /
    Large bullish cot change signal, plus a bit more bullish extreme. My bet is upwards:)

    Canadian Dollar
    COT Extreme / C - 245, LS – 256 report COT extreme /
    The bearish extreme that has turned the price down in the CAD has widened further which in my opinion support even lower prices.

    British Pound
    COT Extreme / C - 165, LS – 159 report COT extreme /
    Pretty much the same picture as in CAD.

    All the best,
    Dunstan

    COT Charts
     
    #359     Oct 9, 2017
    Grantx likes this.
  10. Grantx

    Grantx

    Hi Dunstan, what do the numbers mean? 'C - 245, LS – 256 '
    Thanks.
     
    #360     Oct 9, 2017