Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Oil COT Change (52W) / C â 36%, LS â 40% / Technically, we are close to an important resistance level, so the large cot change may capable of stopping the rally, BUT (!) letâs not forget that in the medium, longer term cot extreme signals are the real âprice moversâ. You may see that about a month ago (basically when weâve reach the bottom), we were close to an all-time cot extreme. If prices are able to continue their rise (judging by the dynamics of price in the last few weeks, I think theyâre able to) and we see Large Speculators becoming net long once again, then I think we can be pretty sure that the trend is once again pointing upwards. Crude Oil COT Extreme / C, LS â All Time COT extreme / I can only repeat myself: the extreme is âAll Timeâ large, so we are expecting prices to decline. Important remark: cot all time extreme can exist for many weeks, before price reaction. Coffee COT Change (52W) / C â 16%, LS â 17% / COT Extreme / C â 145 report, LS â 144 report COT extreme / Enjoy the ride --> for all of you, who reacted on the bullish cot extreme signal that we had in the end of last year. You may ask: Ok, great, but how long could this ride last? If we look at the historical charts, tops developed when Commercials were holding more than 40.000 contracts net short (LS, roughly the opposite / this is true since about 2004). Because of the dynamics both in price and in the cot report, I think that we may reach even >60.000 contracts before the rally is exhausted. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C â 32%, LS â 32% / COT Index (3 yr) / C â 1%, LS â 90%, SS â 70% / The large change in Traders positions is a bearish cot signal that could affect prices in the near term. Not only do we have this larger change, but also a cot extreme that indicates an end for the rally. Of course we should see that for the past 1-1,5 years we have reached these extreme levels multiple times without any major price reaction. I wouldnât be surprised at all if this extreme could become even much greater when we eventually reach a top. Coffee COT Extreme / C â 146 report, LS â 146 report COT extreme / Nothing special here, the extreme is becoming larger and larger as prices are rising. As Iâve said last week, we should expect a change in the trend once Commercials and Large Speculators reach their bearish all time cot extremes. Wheat (Minn.) COT Extreme / C â 111 report, LS â 96 report COT extreme / Although weâve reached a cot extreme worth mentioning, on the 5 year chart we can see that there is still space left for the extreme to widen. This relative cot extreme examined in context with traditional TA tools (clearly visible downwards channel) may paint a more bearish picture: so Iâm not saying that we need to wait for a much greater cot extreme to see prices decline, the extreme is already large enough that we can think about a short trade. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Palladium COT Change (52W) / C â 33%, LS â 36% / Looking closer at the chart, we can see that the cot change signals in Palladium were pretty effective. Interestingly, there were more bullish change signals then bearish ones⦠The change we have now says that prices will fall. If we look at a longer chart, we can see that we have moved away from the bearish cot extreme that was present in the market in 2013. We can of course get there again, but for now, it seems that the extreme is not that large yet to really end to the rally in Palladium. Russel-2000 COT Change (52W) / C â 31%, LS â 28%, SS â 30% / Similarly to Palladium, we can state that cot change signals in Russel-2000 are usable signals. Luckily weâve got a bit more example for the bearish ones. The cot change signal weâve got now is a stronger one suggesting a decline in prices. The cot extreme could be larger and if so, it would be a much easier task to decide what to do⦠If we choose to give it a chance, Iâd strongly recommend it with a smaller position size or tighter stops. Crude Oil COT Extreme / C, LS â All Time COT extreme / Last week we have seen some signals that indicate: we may have reached a top⦠The all time extreme became even greater than before --> stress levels are HUGE in CL. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Oil COT Change (52W) / C â 29%, LS â 27%, SS - 37% / COT Index (3 yr.) / C â 25%, LS â 73%, SS - 72% / The change was very large and we also have a relatively large cot extreme â both of these bearish signals. An unquestionable bearish cot extreme signal would be the case if commercials were below 100.000 contracts net short / large specs above 80.000 contracts net long, but I believe that this extreme may already be strong enough to influence prices. Wheat COT Change (52W) / C â 22%, LS â 19%, SS â 19% / COT Index (3 yr.) / SS - 100% / Similarly to Soybean Oil, the cot change and cot extreme signals are bearish. What we can see here is that small speculators are relatively the most optimistic (cot index on a 3 years lookback period). On the other hand, if we look at the rally in 2010 and the one in 2012 (both of them starting after a bullish cot extreme â similar to the one that started the recent rally), and how traders moved their positions, I believe that there could be fuel left in the rally. Coffee COT Extreme / C â 159, LS â 159 report COT extreme / Thereâs not much I could say here, since the picture is pretty clear: after the bullish cot extreme of last year, prices have finally lifted off and are in a strong rally. The bearish cot extreme is becoming larger very fast which warns us to be careful about further buying⦠Iâm not saying that the rally is over, thereâs still much space left for the extreme to become larger, but we should look carefully at the developments in coffee and know when to get off the roller-coaster. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Japanese Yen COT Change (52W) / C â 46%, LS â 44%, SS - 38% / The large change (largest change size in the last 52 weeks) may easily push prices a bit lower, but in the medium to longer term, if the bullish cot extreme from last year holds, prices should further rally. Lumber COT Extreme / C â 268, LS â 274 report COT extreme / The cot extreme we have now in Lumber supports the continuation of the rally that is present. Coffee COT Extreme / C â 187, LS â 187 report COT extreme / âThe bearish cot extreme is becoming larger very fast which warns us to be careful about further buying⦠â After last weekâs price actions, it seems that my warning a week ago was meaningful. Although we have space left for the extreme to become larger, the speed of the rally and the widening of the extreme parallel to it makes you cautious. I canât tell what is goâna happen to Coffer now, because both sides have their reasons⦠I mean if Bears win, and prices continue last weekâs decline, we may start thinking that the rally is over, but if Bulls turn out to be stronger, prices shift back into rally mode, we know that the extreme can get larger, thus we can look at last weekâs decline as only a bit of reaction in the market. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C â 44%, LS â39%, SS - 12% / COT change signals â in my experience â were successful signals many times in indexes. The large change in Traders positions in this recent cot report could be again another good signal (bullish of course). The cot extreme of course is pointing in the other direction, so any bullish trades should be taken carefully. Feeder Cattle COT Extreme / C â 20, LS â 103, SS - 105 report COT extreme / The cot extreme is becoming significant, we should start expecting a top soon⦠on the other hand, this extreme can grow further, volume and open interest scores are supporting the rise. Wheat COT Extreme / C - 67, LS â 67 report COT extreme / Similarly to FC, the extreme is large, but there is no reason to think that prices canât go further UP --> In the last 5 years, we have had two larger extremes that were capable of ending rallies. I would say that the bullish cot extreme from the end of last year (that started the recent rally) is still in place. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Japanese Yen COT Change (52W) / C â 25%, LS â23%, SS - 25% / Both major cot signals, the cot change in the recent report and the cot extreme a few months ago indicate higher prices for the future. Feeder Cattle COT Extreme / C â 103, LS â 104, SS - 107 report COT extreme / While the extreme has grown larger since last week, volume and open interest scores are not that supportive anymore for the rise in prices. We are expecting a top soon⦠Wheat COT Extreme / C - 69, LS â 68 report COT extreme / If last weekâs decline continuous this week, then we may need to assume that weâve reached a relative bearish cot extreme â similar to the one from the end of last year â which could push prices down, even below 550. Since we are approx. 25.000 contracts away from All Time extreme levels (both for LS and C), itâs not that easy to determine what the case is⦠is this a relative extreme (if so, prices will most probably fall), or the extreme will become larger in the next few weeks. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C â 23%, LS â38%, SS - 36% / COT Extreme / SS â All Time COT extreme / The cot change signal (in case of Commercials and Large Speculators only) is bullish, but on the other hand weâve got the major cot extreme (became all time in SS just now), which is bearish. Itâs pretty hard to tell now, whether prices will continue their decline or as theyâve done it many times during the last 5 years, bounce back upwards. British Pound COT Extreme / C â 163, LS â 164 report COT extreme / I think weâve got a great trading opportunity: The cot extreme signal is clear and visible, while trading wise weâve reached an important resistance level, where we can easily construct a good risk/reward trade! Rough Rice COT Extreme / C - 101, LS â 130 report COT extreme / On a shorter time frame (letâs say 2-3 years), we may be looking at the market as good shorting opportunity. If we take the time to have a look at a longer time horizon, we can see that actually Traders are far away from their bearish extremes. Of course in the near term, we may witness a bit of a drop in prices, but I donât think we should expect any major and especially long lasting price falls. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. RBOB Gasoline COT Change (52W) / C â 25%, LS â32% / Both the cot change signal now and the level of cot extreme in the market suggest prices should fall. All Traders are getting pretty close to their all time cot extreme (C and LS are approx. 25.000 contracts away). British Pound COT Extreme / C â 350, LS â 164 report COT extreme / The extreme has widened, prices were unable to drastically strengthen, so I think last weekâs comments are still valid. Feeder Cattle COT Extreme / LS - 108, SS â 109 report COT extreme / Looking at the charts itâs difficult to believe that prices can go any higher, but if we examine the cot data, we can find that there were larger extremes in the past, we have not reached all time cot extreme levels yet! Iâm not saying that prices will definitely go much higher, the picture is pretty obvious, but thereâs still space left for all major participants to reach their greatest extremes. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybeans COT Change (52W) / C â 19%, LS â17% / The cot change signal is present, although not that large. It is bullish. We havenât got a significant cot extreme, so thereâs not too much supporting information from the cot data this week. Russel-2000 COT Extreme / C â 94, LS â 94 report COT extreme / Interestingly, we are starting to see more bullish cot extreme in indexes these days, even though prices are pretty high! This is supporting the continuation of the rally. RBOB Gasoline COT Extreme / C â 58, LS - 54, SS â 60 report COT extreme / The cot extreme is becoming larger week by week. It is of course bearish, but it can become larger than now (just look at the 5 years chart and see for yourself). All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts