Yeh, perhaps a hijacked COT index, but, specifically: for commercials, for an 18 month period, and I've seen it only applied to gold,
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Coffee COT Change (52W) / C-41%, LS-36%, SS-25% / COT Long-term Trend: UP As Large Speculators gone back Long, we can start thinking of joining them. If you have a look at the historical charts, you’ll find that in most markets, Large Speculators are on the right side during trends. The fact that they are switching their views about the market, is very exciting! Although we have this large change in positions, I think that in a few weeks, but maybe only in a couple of months, we will see much higher prices. Swiss Franc COT Change (52W) / C-20%, LS-19%, SS-20% / COT Extreme / relative COT extreme / Although we are a bit away from All Time cot extreme levels, on a 5 year chart you can see that Commercial’s level of net long 30.000 contracts usually meant the start of a rally. We are at this level now. Of course the picture would be clearer if they were at 55-60.000 contracts, but this level of extreme combined with the large change size may convince us to open a long position. Heating Oil COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme / We’ve got All Time extreme levels in the cot report this time in Heating Oil, that could easily mean higher prices soon! I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Coffee COT Change (52W) / C-36%, LS-32%, SS-24% / COT Long-term Trend: DOWN Large Speculators could not stay long, thus we may easily see the further widening of the cot extreme: Commercials heading back to above 20.000 contracts net long levels. If this is the case, we should expect prices to continue their decline, even if the change this time can be regarded as a bullish signal (but of course we should know by now that cot changes have a short lasting effect -> prices may rise for a few days). Wheat (Chicago) COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-20%, SS-30% / COT Extreme / not far from all time COT extreme / Both of our major cot signals are pointing upwards, a large change in traders positions and the extreme in the market. The last two extremes lasted for quite some time, so we may need to wait a bit for the rally to happen. British Pound COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme / Until we reach the bottom in prices of early this year, the preceding cot extreme is still in place and prices can continue their rally. If the mentioned level is broken and prices fall deeper, we may find ourselves in a similar situation as we had in Japanese Yen a few months ago, a Commercial Capitulation. Of course these rarely happen, so it’s not the scenario we should bet on. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Nasdaq-100 COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme / The cot picture suggests that the rally we see in prices has come to an end, at least temporarily. Silver COT Extreme / C – 616 report, LS – 527 report COT extreme / There’s an unquestionable bullish picture in metals now if we look at the cot report. The question is of course – as always – when would prices react? Japanese Yen COT Extreme / LS – 306 report COT extreme / We know now, that the All Time COT extreme that developed at the end of 2012 did not produce a rally, but rather a rare situation that we call commercial capitulation. The extreme in this market is still present, yet we do not see the weakening of this decline. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here
Which one let you think that the rally may have come to an end? S&P 500 Consolidated - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Total Change is: Long : Short : -12,427 -1,676 Is this one? Among all the cot information of the stock futures, which one is the most important or material one?
Hi Tilt2, Before I say anything, I have to tell you that in my short 7 years that I’ve been watching the cot report, I experienced that cot analysis was least effective in stock indexes. Indexes strongly correlate with one another and so there is not a large difference in the cot picture amongst them. If you look at S&P chart that I’ve attached, you’ll see that there is a definite extreme in the market that should be considered a bearish signal. On ET I can’t post more than just one image, but you can have a look at all the other stock indexes hereand you’ll see that the picture is pretty much the same everywhere in indexes. I would say that the larger the market, the more influence it will have on that specific market category. In this respect, I believe that S&P should be the first market to look at if you trade indexes. All the best, Dunstan
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). New Zealand Dollar COT Change (52W) / C&LS 22% / The latest cot report shows us that both the change in trader’s positions and the extreme in the market are painting a bullish picture. If we look at the longer term charts, we can see that NZD nicely reacted to these extremes. We may need to wait one or two more weeks, before the bottom develops, but it’s definitely getting closer. Australian Dollar COT Extreme / C, LS & SS – All Time COT extreme / The extreme is more evident here than in NZD. The COT report shows us that all major players in the market are at their all time extreme level. The picture is very bullish. British Pound COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / Seems that the cot extreme that developed a few months ago and which started to push prices higher is still widening. Prices should continue their rally. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Oats COT Change (52W) / C – 53%, LS 60% / The large change in the commitments of traders report can be considered a bearish signal, so we may see a bit of a price decline. We can’t talk about a very large cot extreme, but there is a relative one if you just look at a shorter period of time, such as the one-year chart. Heating Oil COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / The extreme is still widening even though prices have reacted to it many weeks ago. We can expect prices to go even higher. Australian Dollar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / The picture in the commitments of traders report is the same as last week, we have a beautiful All Time extreme situation. If you haven’t seen my earlier warnings, it is still not late to take a trade! I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Rough Rice COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS - 53% / If you remember, we talked about rough rice a few reports ago and now looking at the chart, we can see that the large cot change back then was a very nice bullish signal that resulted in a successful trade for anyone, who took it. This time, we have another large change, but it is a bearish signal. Since we are also close to a bullish cot extreme, the question is: which signal to follow (?). Well, the shorter, one year charts suggests that we should expect a decline in prices --> rough rice reacts to these large changes, so we may expect it to do so again. Of course we shouldn’t forget about the longer term picture too… Crude Oil COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / Even if Small Speculators seem to be pessimistic about this market (which usually is a bullish signal), the other two major participants are at cot extremes that have a bearish bias. Australian Dollar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Another Commercial Capitulation? The pictures is very much similar to the once we had in Japanese Yen. We’ve got a huge (All Time) cot extreme, but prices seem to neglect the signal. If this is the case, we can expect a very serious decline in prices. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here