Hi Dunstan, What do you think about the work that Larry Williams' has done (regarding his trading strategies) using the COT report? Thanks, gotta_trade
Larry Williams wrote the definitive book on the COT report-- its a must read for all traders--- excellent way to view the market. surf
Hi gotta_trade Sorry for my late reply… I think it’s one of those books that you need to read if you are starting to be interested in the commitments of traders report. It’s a good start, but not enough. Once you get to know the majority of tools and the basic concepts, I advise you to start investigating historical charts and see the signals “in action”. Since cot data is not derived from price, every market has its own characteristic --> you will have different experience with coffee than you will with S&P for example. All the best, Dunstan
Hi everyone, (sorry for the late post, but I was out of town for a few days… The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Gold COT Change (52W) / C-21%, LS-21% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-99%, LS-0%, SS-21% / I think Gold is the most bullish from all metal markets, but it’s not at an unquestionable bottom. Looking at Silver for example, where we also had large changes in the recent report, we can see that we have more space left for the decline to continue, not to talk about Platinum, Palladium, where it is quite visible, that we have a very bearish picture. Cotton COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme / It looks that the rally triggered by the signals a couple of months ago (commercials net long) has come to an end. The extreme suggests that we should be looking at shorting opportunities. Coffee COT Extreme / LS-482 report COT extreme / It’s interesting to see two markets from the same group to have such opposite signals… while in Cotton Commercials have moved back to deep short territories, here we can see that they are still net long --> bullish picture. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Heating Oil COT Change (52W) / C-34%, LS-34%, SS-28% / Another example, when we have the COT extreme and COT change indicating opposite signals. Which one should we listen to? Well I think if we look at the intensity with which prices have started their decline (after last week’s cot extreme), we should expect a bigger chance for the continuation of the decline, then a significant reversal. Canadian Dollar COT Change (52W) / C-29%, LS-31%, SS-22% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-100%, LS-5%, SS-0% / COT Extreme / C-236, LS-57, SS-297 report extremes / We are witnessing a significant extreme in the market, signaling a bullish picture in the near (?), medium time horizon. Feeder Cattle COT Extreme / LS-All Time extreme / I don’t think I can add any smart words here, the picture is pretty clear I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here
Regarding something similar to a COT report, did you ever think about using Short Stock Availability figures to do the similar thing for stocks? You can download this data in bulk from Interactive Brokers for example (updated hourly). Knowing the amount of stocks available could tell you something about how many buyers/sellers are out there, but that's just a hypothesis. It works better for some stocks than others, and knowing that it's only broker-related it has it's limits, but still might be useful. I for one would subscribe immediately if you had this data for all US traded stocks. I pull my own but it takes time to organize it and so don't end up looking at it so much. It would probably take at least 1 year of accumulation to create the charts though, if you want it to be useful. Just an idea. Also, since the data for single stocks is patchy, you could do it on a per-sector basis to get a clearer picture.
Hi braincell, SSA sounds interesting, although I don’t regularly trade stocks (I’m more of a futures/options and sometimes forex trader). I know IB is one of the largest brokers, but still it would be much nicer to see it on the whole market. Maybe you can send cotbase.com a letter if you think this could be a useful product. I know they are working on their site right now, but currently they only focus on cot analysis tools. All the best, Dunstan
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C-22%, LS-22% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-40%, LS-67%, SS-45% / A larger than average change size in a cot extreme neutral environment --> the last larger extreme was a few months ago, successfully pushing prices higher, but we are not at an opposite extreme yet that could put an end to the rally. Cotton COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme / In a couple of months’ time we got from a large buy signal cot extreme to a large sell signal cot extreme --> interesting. The last major sell cot extreme was in 2010, but it was one of those rare cases (commercial capitulation) when prices without any reaction, skyrocketed up. Would commercials fall in the same mistake and build up such large short positions that they cannot hold? If they’ve learned their lesson and have plenty of margin left, then we can expect a top in prices soon. Soybean Oil COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme / Beautiful all time cot extreme in one of the best markets --> cot analysis is quite effective in soybean markets, so the signals are more reliable here than in other markets. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Sugar COT Change (52W) / C-23%, LS-21%, SS-19% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-75%, LS-25%, SS-41% / Not long ago, Commercials were ne long signaling a bullish cot extreme (the last time they were net long, was back in 2007). As they are “retreating” back to short levels, prices have started to incline, seems as if this cot extreme has affected prices. The sell signal we are getting from the COT change should not get too much attention, in my opinion, it is the extreme that has a stronger influence on prices --> I’m expecting prices to go higher. Palladium COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme / Another All Time COT extreme in Palladium. I think before anyone starts to jump on it and starts shorting it, we should look at other metals first to see if we have a similar case there. Palladium could easily rally for another few weeks/months --> in this case we would experience the widening of the cot extreme. Cotton COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme / To tell you the truth, my guess is that we will experience the same situation we had back in 2010, when commercials could not hold their positions and the rare, so called “commercial capitulation” happened --> prices rallied through the sky as commercials were forced to exit their short contracts. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here