I used to think that we were going straight down, but have changed my mind. 1.- The flat yield curve doesn't mean anything this time if you take in consideration that rates come from the lowest they have been in 40 years.... 2.- Even though EU economy is much worse than US, European stock markets are doing better than US this year. 3.- Low unemployment, no inflation, 3.5 or 3.4 or 3.0 gdp growth, is good anyway you see it. The markets should have tanked a long time ago and they didn't. and they will but it doesn't seem to be anytime soon....
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/06/21/BUG6JDBOSL1.DTL -------------------------------------------------
If you take a longer view from a historical perspective, the burst of housing market, not just US but worldwide, is a 100% sure thing. History just keeps repeating itself. The timing could be off a few years, but when you look at it in a longer view, a few years is really nothing.
Here is an interesting article I came across. http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=162 Brandon
Talk about comparing apples & oranges, yikes. Comparing the bubble in gold to tech bubble? Or to the Japanese. . . uhm. . . what the heck is that anyway? It's not the Nekkia or whatever the big Japanese average is, the guy clearly cherry picked a couple of charts to show what he wanted. I bet I could pull up some charts and show even more bubble ahead, if I looked long enough. Nobody pays for articles from bulls tho, until we're topping out.
TGreeg: It seems you have misread the article. The reference to bubbles in any market by the author relates to common human behavior of excessive greed and fear. He also didn't seem to have made any bullish calls in my opinion. Cheers !
Northeast real estate is the lee-duh, not the lah-gud. Last week, the Boston Globe reported that in Middlesex County, foreclosure filings rose 34 percent in the first five months of this year compared with the same period in 2004 and that in 10 out of 14 counties in Massachusetts, foreclosure rates have increased. The bubble is a-pawpin' -- Soros has a backache.
The author is correct. Every market made up of human behavior which dictates price. Human behavior never changes, hence we see the same recurring patterns. Having said that, the historical mean P/E for the SnP has been around 15 and secular bear markets have bottomed out only after hitting a P/E around 8. Right now the earnings of financial and energy companies are shoring up SnP earnings. Should the real estate market collapse I forsee a grind lower to 2003 lows where I suspect we'll find a bottom. I love to trade the short side anyway, the profits come much quicker so I'm not complaining.