High oil prices.. Manufacturing in the slumps Fed raising rates.. yield curve flat.. All the hallmarks of a full blown recession on its way.. I bet by 2006 it all comes into play. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={8F5524BB-6617-4460-9024-6608F7915435}&siteid=mktw
recession : An extended decline in general business activity, typically three consecutive quarters of falling real gross national product. Dont we already have that?
The board's index of leading indicators dropped 0.5% in May. Nine out of the ten leading indicators fell in the month. This is no blip... its just a matter of time.. before the whole economy slows down significantly.. the million dollar question is what happens to housing market... which as lead this whole bull market.
The official real GDP growth rate in the US is around 3.5% in the past few quarters. The official inflation rate of 2.5% - 3% is said to be understated by some experts. Many service sectors' inflation is more than 7%. Depending how you want to weight the composite inflation index, we might be closer to negative GDP that we thought.
I think a depression is coming, and when oil hits 100 it will no longer be a recession. Just like oil storm on FX, terrorists will do everything they can to break the US and crush our economy. It only takes one thing for this to happen.