The media is saying the stock went up because of fre bond auction demand and Citigroup analysts maintaining their buy rating, bs. the only reason they went up its because I added on friday
If I take your first two givens, I do not come to the same conclusion, in fact in my mind your conclusions contradict what is given. Diluting to those low levels would destroy confidence when they want to build it. If they want it to remain private, as they have stated, they can not destroy investors. They will have to get them interested and with more confidence than is in the market place now.
Cramer seems to alternate between insanity and brilliance. this time I think he's got it right, his theory is that the market wants fnm and fre to be wiped out to revive housing sooner and because there was no nationalization during the weekend that was bad news for the market and good news for the gse stocks. this video reminds me the abk mbi episode when he nailed the market 's thinking pretty impressively http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=831983766&play=1
A bailout of any shareholders would be the most morally repugnant use of US taxpayer dollars since the invasion of the Phillipines. Quite frankly, a bailout of bondholders is bad enough. They took the risk, they got the yield premium over treasuries, now they should take the consequences. IMO they should just BK the companies, and bond investors should be left with what they get in BK court. They made the investment, they had the chance to perform analysis and due diligence (lol) before making multi-million/billion bets - they should take the consequences of their profit-seeking. Caveat emptor and all that. Of course, now that Jim Bunning has correctly identified the United Socialists of America, no doubt they'll follow a French-style solution and hose the taxpayer for $5 trillion just to bail out some foreign speculators.
Daal: There's a bounce for you - from 2.54 to 4.28 on FRE, a nice 68% gain in less than 1.5 trading days.