They're predicting a Covid-19 initial vaccine will be around 70% effective. Won't post the info again after multiple times of posting it but I've been very critical here about the millions / billions of dollars raised and thrown at HIV, Flu, SARs and other diseases and many years later... We still do not have a vaccine. That reason alone makes me skeptical about a pending vaccine for Covid-19 by spring of 2021 although recently I hear politicians saying one could be develop prior to the November elections. By the way, I do still remember about discovery of vaccines for HIV...about 15 of them. Now with Covid-19 I think there has been about 5 stories by China, Russia although there's about 172 countries working on a vaccine for Covid-19. Not trying to be too sarcastic but I expect to hear more stories about a developed vaccine by end of year... Maybe the next Covid-19 vaccine story will be out of North Korea or by a ISIS scientist. wrbtrader
Effectiveness of the upcoming vaccine is a function of mutation frequency (and many other secondary factors). This is where the 'media' did a gross disservice yet another time. At first they claimed that the frequency is very low, close to zero. Then they changed the tune to it being extremely high and dangerous, and quoted some unverifiable strain abbreviations. Then they went back to the initial claim of the near zero mutation frequency. So called info can be disinformation, misinformation, an outright canard and disseminated with the speed of light. Churchill's aphorism on truth comes to mind. I and a few other friends with Stats background started to produce our own spreadsheets early on and withing first 4 weeks came to the same conclusion: the 'numbers' made no sense. Too bad, because when a real thing comes next time, few people will trust the corrupt Gov agencies and officials like Dr Fauci that discredited themselves so beautifully. Perhaps, this is a part of a plan?
No, dumbshit... it's bc it's novel. You have no exposure and therefore no immunity/antibodies. How do you vaccinate from a novel virus?
The statistics for a new infection that results in a Pandemic with have hundreds of statistical models around the world and you can then choose which one is accurate and which one is not accurate... Yet, keep in mind the theme that Covid-19 is new and the prediction models will change every month. Once you understand the above context that there are hundreds of players at work and most of them not on the same page in the first few months of a Pandemic...you can then put aside whom said what and when. Few people trust the American government and many countries feel the same. It started during the gangster prohibition days involving the production, importation, transportation, and sale of alcoholic beverages from 1920 to 1933. The distrust may have reached its peak during the Hoover days although we have a growing list of conspiracy theories about the government in the recent years. With that said, with all the distrust and conspiracy theories going around about Covid-19... Do you think many people will not believe your stats background and your spreadsheets about Covid-19 ? Think about the above question carefully. You will believe your own numbers while others believe their own numbers. Yet, those actually working with the disease and have access to the hospital data networks...their statistics or prediction models carry more weight with me than the others. By the way, I don't have a stats background but I do have a close family friend (college roommate of 2 years) that's a CEO of a major pharmaceutical firm. The stats he's shared with me every 1 - 2 months are in line with what other infectious disease firms have been saying. It would be silly of me to try to hold them accountable for a new disease that scientists are still learning about today and seem to change their tune every few days in the first month of the Pandemic. Yet, I do have a science degree and I knew in March that the stats will be different in April...different in May and so on involving the prediction models. Anyone with an understanding of new diseases would know that. Reminder about that initial theory about Coronavirus...nobody will die. https://www.healthing.ca/diseases-a...9-conspiracy-theories-explained-with-evidence https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-conspiracy-theories-1.5672766 https://policyoptions.irpp.org/maga...-in-covid-19-conspiracies-and-why-it-matters/ https://medicalfuturist.com/debunking-covid-19-theories/# You have the right to believe what you want. wrbtrader
The U.S. response was the worst among all possibilities: starting with no response, followed by chaos and fifty different polices coupled with incompetence and lies at the top. And the results are what you would expect.
If an effective vaccine is developed, the chances of the virus making a later comeback in an evolved variation are reduced by vaccinating 100% of the population, ideally worldwide. Smallpox is a nice example of how much more effective a vaccination program can be if it is virtually universal rather than piecemeal. At one time, virtually 100% of the U.S. population was vaccinated for variola virus. If we had an effective covid-19 vaccine today available to everyone, we would have parents insisting that their kids, or themselves, not be vaccinated. The vaccine doesn't have to be 100% effective so long as 100% of the population is vaccinated.
Recent studies suggest about 35% will not get vaccinated although I've seen other studies show as low as 25% will not get vaccinated while another large percentage group will take the "wait and see" reaction to a newly available vaccine (Canary in the Mine reaction). https://news.gallup.com/poll/317018/one-three-americans-not-covid-vaccine.aspx Worst, it has now become political and reflected in some polls that show Democrats overwhelmingly believe in vaccination if one becomes available for Covid-19 while Republicans will not get vaccinated... Never a good result when Politics and Health are thrown into a fight. Simply, you'll never get a 100% vaccination especially with the growth and political power by the anti-vaccine group although not as strong and deeply rooted like the NRA. wrbtrader
I think likely there are vast numbers of people who are immune already to Wuhan-19 either with T Cells or having been exposed to Coronaviruses before. I would not be surprised to find out that a vaccine was not even necessary.
I think covid is over. Look at the number of cases in the USA and look at where other countries peaked out.