http://drhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2007/09/florida-housing-1920s-redux-history.html#links history repeating itself.
You can read stuff written in the 1920's explaining how back in the 1880's they were saying it's different this time. The reasons 'why it is different this time' thesis trotted out by Goldman in the late '90's was trotted out in the 20's, right down to the arguments about inventory control etc.
I find these discussions hilarious. I live in a SFH in SoFla and a condo in Chicago. Chicago is a tad more expensive than Florida. Perhaps to someone from Akron, Florida seems pumped. To folks in other eastern seaboard cities (NYC, Boston, DC), Miami is ultra affordable. Hardly a "bubble." Everyone harps about the two dozen hi-rises being built in Miami. As if SoFla can't absorb several thousand more people. Given that Florida's population increased by six million from 1990 to 2006, I don't see a situation of supply overwhelming demand. Not to mention that most of these new buildings have starting prices of under 400k. Try buying a unit in a full service building at those prices in London. There's only one true "bubble" in America. Manhattan. For some reason NYC has become a sacred cow to all the dim witted bloggers. I'm on record as saying the following. There will be a day when a the average house in Los Angeles's Westside will sell for more than the average co-op on Park Avenue. Miami, Vegas, Phoenix, SoCal are the future. The tax bloated, cold northern cities are the past.
I think FL is currently experiencing a net population decline. MOre people leaving the state than moving into. Check out the Uhaul rates for NC to FL and compare to rates for FL to NC.
a lot of my friends and family from queens, etc who sold 2 and 4 families for 500k bought in fla for 300k/400k think fla is a steal...sure but.....you must admit that things got overbought? me and my family bought a condo with a door man in pompano in 2005, i am certain it is worth less than we paid and going down for the next two years at least. it was not an investment, just a place to go for a growing family. fla and the rest of the country is going to drop a lot....and i will go on record that nyc co-op's will never be less than other cities. never. one of those rare times i disagree with you......
Too cool. I tell friend's all the time that Pompano is the best value down here. Atlantic Ave. between US1 and the ocean is filled with good Deli's, cafe's and high end restaurants. Plus Briney Pub at the ocean. There's a place just west of Galt Ocean Mile called Wally's on 33rd. FILLED with guy's from Queens! Yea, you probably bought the high's but big deal, sounds like you've got a major league place. Certainly I'm overstating my bearishness on NYC but the point I'm making is that with NYC in the stratosphere there'll always be an opp for guy's like you to bid up SoFla. Not that there's too many New Yorker's down here.......
Florida's population increases by about 200 people per day. Certainly some people are leaving. School districts are losing kids also. Getting back to your article though. Over extended? Fer sure. Bubble? By what criteria?
Manhattan coops priced right are selling over the ask price. You are clueless about NYC. They have experienced 0% decline while the entire nation is a mess.
NYC prices have effected Jersey too. I was looking at some CO-OPS above Hoboken with a view of mid-town a couple months ago, the asking price for a one bedroom was 330k. This is for a place that was selling for no more then 180k 2-3 years ago. I was willing to make an all cash offer of 250k, but they laughed in my face. Now I'm waiting for this damn market to come down so I can do the laughing. Asking such prices for swamp land in Jersey is insane. -Neo