Flood risk in US midwest is high for year 2013

Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by lx008, Apr 1, 2013.

  1. lx008

    lx008

    The snow cover in north and midwest looks more like the one in year 2011 and 209.

    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/hic/nho/

    National Hydrologic Assessment

    March 21, 2013

    "Based on the above normal amount of water in the current snowpack and seasonal forecasts of continued above normal precipitation, a potential for exceeding moderate and major river flood levels exists for the Red River of the North, which forms the state line between eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, and the Souris River in North Dakota for Spring 2013. These areas experienced major to record flooding two years ago in the spring of 2011.

    Devils Lake and Stump Lake are located within a closed basin in northeast North Dakota. The basin has experienced flooding since the 1990's, rising over 30 feet, which has destroyed hundreds of homes and businesses and inundated thousands of acres of productive farmland. Last year, these lakes dropped nearly 3 feet from their 2011 record height. Currently the lakes are at an elevation of 1451.5 feet MSL (3/16/13) and due to an above normal topsoil wetness and above normal snowpack they have a 50% chance of rising approximately 2 feet. The immediate impact of a 1.5 to 2.5 foot rise is the loss in ground recovered over the past two years, including 25,000 acres of farmland and numerous miles of roadway and farm access roads.

    Due to recent snow events, a potential for exceeding minor and moderate river flood levels exists in the Upper Mississippi River basin, including southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and northern Missouri. Tributaries in the plains of the upper Missouri River basin, specifically the Milk River in eastern Montana, the Big Sioux River in South Dakota, and the Little Sioux River in Iowa, may also experience minor to moderate flooding. With significant frozen ground in these areas, the flood risk is highly dependent on the amount of future rainfall and the rate of snowmelt this spring.

    Potential for exceeding minor river flood levels exists in the middle Mississippi, the smaller tributary streams in the lower Missouri basin, and the Ohio River basin in spring of 2013. This would include portions of Kansas, Missouri, eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Recent snow and rain events have already produced flooding in this area and the threat for more flooding due to springtime precipitation will continue. This is normal for this region.

    Recent rain events, above normal river levels, and forecasts for continued above normal precipitation create the risk for exceeding minor flood levels during spring in the lower Mississippi River basin and in the Southeast. This includes portions of Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia.

    The flood potential from snowmelt and ice jams throughout Alaska this spring is currently rated as near normal. This forecast is based on current ice thickness, observed snowpack, and long range weather forecasts.

    Heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding, even in areas where overall risk is considered low. The latest information for your specific area, including official watches and warnings should be obtained at: http://water.weather.gov

    Current water supply forecasts and outlooks in the western United States range from near normal in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, to much below normal in the Central and Southern Rockies, and in California.
    Heavy Rainfall and Flooding

    The information presented in this report focuses on spring flood potential, using evaluation methods analyzed on the timescale of weeks to months, not days. Heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding, even in areas where overall risk is considered low. Rainfall intensity and location can only be accurately forecasted for days in the future, therefore flood risk can change rapidly. "
     
  2. Trying to justify not getting out of those corn longs you have on?
     
  3. lx008

    lx008

    Meant to watch for some weather premium in new crop corn.Some intended area of corn or spring wheat may end up as soybean, in a flood scenario.And there might be some support for corn and more pressure for soy complex, I guess, for the new crops.
     
  4. Brighton

    Brighton

    A few things to keep in mind:

    - The areas mentioned in the first half of the article are not major corn and soybean growing regions. They're growing more than they used to, but they're not major league.

    - The Red River of the North flows into the land of Maple Syrup and doesn't have much effect on MN farming or farming in the rest of the Mississippi River basin.

    - New crop corn is holding up surprisingly well given the 90 cent drop in old crop over the last two trading days. I think that's more due to unseasonably cold weather than flood fears. It's April 2nd and my daily concert performance (shower) still includes The Rodeo Song.
     
  5. kanellop

    kanellop

  6. lx008

    lx008

    Thanks ,Kanellop for your information. The similar risks of spring also apply to Canada.

    Maybe the planting of canola and spring wheat are also interesting issues to watch.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2013/03/26/mb-provincial-flood-forecast-manitoba.html

    "The Manitoba government's latest spring flood forecast calls for a moderate to major risk of flooding among a number of provincial waterways.

    The revised forecast, released on Tuesday, indicates an increased risk of flooding along the Red, Souris, Pembina, Saskatchewan, Qu¡¯Appelle and Assiniboine rivers and in the Interlake area.

    Provincial flood forecaster Phillip Mutulu said a heavy March snowfall and an above-average snowpack with a high water content contributed to the elevated risk.


    Check out CBC Manitoba's special feature for the latest on flood news in the province and surrounding areas.

    Mutulu said low temperatures are preventing frost in the ground from melting.

    The province likely won¡¯t see water levels reach those of the 2011 flood, though, according to Mutulu.

    ¡°This is Manitoba. We¡¯re not taking anything for granted. It¡¯s clear we¡¯re going to be into flooding this spring,¡± Emergency Measures Minister Steve Ashton told reporters in Winnipeg on Tuesday."
     
  7. kanellop

    kanellop

  8. kanellop

    kanellop

  9. lx008

    lx008

    Follow up the risk also in Canada

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...mb-fargo-flood-forecast-updated-manitoba.html

    "Manitoba government says risk of Red River flooding is getting
    worse

    By Steve Lambert
    (Canadian Press) -- WINNIPEG -- The long winter that has
    drifted into spring has intensified the flood risk in Manitoba's
    Red River Valley.
    A late melt combined with heavy snowfall upstream in North
    Dakota prompted the provincial government to revise its flood
    outlook Thursday. The Red River is expected to run 30
    centimetres higher than it did in 2009, when hundreds of
    residents in small communities were removed from the area as a
    precaution and many fields and roads were under water.
    The province's chief flood forecaster says that means
    Highway 75 -- the main link between Winnipeg and the United
    States border -- will be closed. Some communities south of
    Winnipeg will have to shut parts of their ring dikes, leaving
    them perhaps with just one road to the outside world, Phillip
    Mutulu added.
    "Dikes closures and a (highway) 75 detour could be
    required, although no communities are expected to lose road
    access (completely)."
    The good news for area residents is that the Red is
    expected to remain well below the record level set during the so-
    called flood of the century in 1997. In the wake of that
    disaster, homes and businesses in the valley were built up to 60
    centimetres higher than that level.
    Evacuations may occur as they did in 2009, when tiny
    isolated communities had their residents leave before the river
    peaked, in fear that fire trucks or ambulances would have
    trouble getting through swamped roads in the event of an
    emergency.
    The forecast for the rest of the province remains
    unchanged. Super-sized sandbags are being placed along low-lying
    roads in Brandon, the province's second-largest city that sits
    along the Assiniboine River. But water levels are not expected
    to pose a significant problem unless major storms coincide with
    the melt.
    Flood preparations are an annual ritual in Manitoba, where
    meltwater comes from as far away as Alberta and South Dakota.
    The province has several measures in place designed to
    keep water flowing smoothly. Three amphibious icebreakers are
    used to break up rivers, dikes have been built around many
    smaller communities and diversion channels move water around
    larger cities.
    Winnipeg is protected by the Red River Floodway -- a 47-
    kilometre-long channel that diverts water around the city to the
    east and north.
    The biggest factor is whether a freak storm develops and
    dumps a lot of snow or rain just as meltwater starts to make the
    rivers rise. Because of unusually cold weather this year, the
    Red is expected to peak only in the second half of May -- about
    three weeks later than usual."
     
    #10     Apr 18, 2013