"Flipped In Florida" - For Sale Sign On Almost Every Other Home

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by ByLoSellHi, Mar 26, 2007.

  1. Green building, LEEDs certified. A huge marketing edge, perfect for those spoiled trust fund babies looking to do nice things for the environment. Rich ppl, not working people, cause unemployment is at least double what the reports are telling you.

    The fact that it was not quickly snatched up like the Solaire prior to even being completed only shows that Manhattan is hurting and has been hurting. Solaire is rentals, but they were all booked up prior to completion, 20-30% premium rents over your next luxury building and with a long waiting list.
    2-3 years ago, these condos would have been almost all sold out without even the model floor being completed. Now you are looking at 20% with half the building complete. The developer is not too happy, that building is expensive and $2k a foot is the low end of what he should charge considering how much more expensive construction is nowdays. 2 years ago he could have gotten $2.5k a foot.

    Housing is not thriving here, condos are not selling, that's why they are quickly being turned into hotels. The Manhattan, and even Astoria, Long Island, Brooklyn real estate markets all pulled a quick turn in 2006. Downside is limited, but then you never know.
     
    #51     Mar 27, 2007
  2. blast19

    blast19

    Hydro, you're right and that was my point. Those are unique properties that are selling well still. It's not the norm and more and more builders are stuck turning some units into "hotel rooms" or "rentals."

    ...and much of the ridiculous buying in the city has reportedly come from Wall Streeters moving up because of ridiculous bonuses and salary packages.

    There are a few buildings going up near me, in Union Square, that I think are still not all sold. Union Square is probably the hippest area in the city to leave if you factor in transportation options. But I don't think they're sold out yet and they're almost done being built.

    I wasn't here 2 years ago so I couldn't say for sure...but renting here is, AMAZINGLY, affordable compared to buying...especially if you throw in maintenance fees on top of the mortgage.
     
    #52     Mar 27, 2007
  3. I think a lot of you are missing the point...Are ultra desirable places like manhattan and ocean front still in demand? Of course...always have and always will.....now, let's go to say..the rest of the country...it ain't looking good at all...Ameriquest just asked for somebody to buy them out!...but if the entire NAZ 100 is down 20% except for say 3 issues, I'd hardly hang my hat on the stock market and say it's not that bad.
     
    #53     Mar 27, 2007
  4. there are too many people waiting to pick a bottom - these people will cause the "soft landing" in housing.

    There are more homebuyers on the market each year as people keep making babies for some reason.... The demand for housing is semi-proportional to the rate of population growth. People that are calling for some housing doomsday are forgetting this...
     
    #54     Mar 27, 2007
  5. blast19

    blast19

    Forgetting what? Because people are having kids is a great reason there will be less buyers, especially with inflated home prices...who can afford one? Especially in bubble areas, those are going to be the root of the burst.

    Also, if you factor in tighter lending standards being implemented, you have a lot of first time homebuyers who are going to be squeezed right out of the market who could have bought in last year or the year before no problem. Plus, higher prices will make these first time buyers even less likely to be able to afford.
     
    #55     Mar 27, 2007

  6. Not to be argumentative...but have you been reading the reports on housing???? 'doomsday' is here right now...people make lots of babies in the inner cities but they don't buy a lot of houses do they? while I agree long term that housing will recover, MANY of these same families having kids that need to buy a home, have now been cut out of the RE market due to 1) prices 2) taxes and 3) THE SUB PRIME BLOW OUT , which means creative loans are not available for them.
     
    #56     Mar 27, 2007
  7. We've never had a soft landing in housing, and never will.

    Everyone was talking about England's soft landing for years.

    Guess what? There's an article in The Economist this month about how that is likely to turn out to be a massive illusion. And Ireland and Spain are crashing now (down 15% and 20%, respectively).

    Soft landings are things of fairy tales.


    This is why we will see fed rate cuts soon. They will try to stop a housing-led recession.
     
    #57     Mar 27, 2007
  8. Got to dissagree with you there......I think that they are gonna let the pain take its toll and make this mess work itself out
     
    #58     Mar 27, 2007
  9. blast19

    blast19

    I pray they do...but I think the Fed is going cater to Wall St.(UUUUUUGGGGHHHHH) and cut rates...we'll see.

    It will maybe prop stocks...won't work in the RE market though. It'll create a good crest of high optimism maybe to short from.
     
    #59     Mar 27, 2007
  10. Higher than anticipated property taxes, energy costs and insurance are all bigger factors in this particular environment than the cost of money. However I'm short bond futures so I think rates will rise. Another potential nail in the coffin.

    Home prices will fall enough that they wash out weak owners.
    Not unlike the way futures (an equally leveraged "investment") rotate to levels where under capitalized speculators are forced to liquidate.

    Happens all the time.

    Lack of affordability is not in itself bearish. Some bright eyed optimists like to think that lack of affordability means the market will come to them. In reality the market will ultimately move away from them. Those who are long will be punished. Later those who are short (i.e. homeless) will be punished. Zen like, eh?

    Ever see those shantytowns outside Rio, Sao Paulo and Caracas? America's future.........
     
    #60     Mar 27, 2007