Flip of a coin..but

Discussion in 'Trading' started by hilmy83, Jan 9, 2023.

  1. spy

    spy

    Lol
     
    #31     Jan 10, 2023
  2. The problem with your (theoretical) strategy that i see is, that you do not care about losses. If you do not make $100 you die and therefore the losses do not matter.

    In reality, we care about the losses in our accounts. :)
     
    #32     Jan 10, 2023
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  3. Even if it's not a literal "death".... This strategy would result in the death of one's account.

    At increased day trading leverage ($500/ES), all it takes is 10 points in the wrong direction before you are completely wiped out. 100% loss.
     
    #33     Jan 10, 2023
  4. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    Maybe the whole point is to manage your bankroll so that your whole stake is not at risk in one sitting.

    If you have 90% chance of making money and 10% of blowing up, maybe just put up enough to sustain a predetermined loss. And trade the strategy long enough that you can withdraw your original stake.

    If tha'ts too much, move down to micros.
     
    #34     Jan 10, 2023
  5. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Not very likely.
     
    #35     Jan 10, 2023
  6. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    About 95% likely.

    2% risk takes about 36 rounds to double

    36 win streak has a chance of 95% probability with 85% win rate system



    upload_2023-1-10_11-51-18.png
     
    #36     Jan 10, 2023
  7. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    taht was for 90%

    this is 85%

    upload_2023-1-10_11-59-5.png
     
    #37     Jan 10, 2023
  8. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    Plug in some EV formula for a random stake to make money over time

    avg winx%win - avg lossx%loss

    .35 x 2 - .65 x 1 = .05 postive return over time
     
    #38     Jan 10, 2023
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  9. Good Evening Tradess0610,

    Losses means absolutely nothing at ALL. All that matters for a day trader is 1 thing ONLY:

    1. Can you recover your account from intraday drawdown as a manual discretionary/guessing/gambling trader and end the day/week/month profitable consistently for the next X to XX years?

    Recovering from drawdown to keep the account positive and growing is all that matters. Does not matter if losses per trade is $10,000 and wins is $1 per trade, for example. Just recovery drawdown
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2023
    #39     Jan 10, 2023
  10. easymon1

    easymon1

    It is entertaining that you state the above as if it is a matter of will alone that makes it happen.
     
    #40     Jan 10, 2023
    SimpleMeLike likes this.