Yep, that is the pattern I started seeing in 2018 when I switched to equities. I called it the 10:30AM reversal. It was a great time for bulls. How does that look if you run the data from Jan 2022 until now?
Yes, that's what I mean. You're not participating in the game, right? Hilmy83, if I wanted to make a living, I couldn't play in a 50/50 coin toss, unless I could find someone willing to bet 2 for 1. When I can't find that person, while you're forcing me with a loaded gun, what do I do then? Alright, I'll bet, but only on the first toss and only as much as I can afford to lose. I can't expect the next toss to come out heads in a row. On the first toss, win or lose, I go home, and life goes on. That's how the game is to win (lose) on that day. My decision on that day, does not affect tomorrow. The market is not a game like that. The market is like life. If I lose today, I have a match again later, tomorrow, the day after, and so on, and so forth. Every decision is not independent, price changes are not independent: today, affects tomorrow. Yes, it can, of course. With the condition, the participants are very many. Say with 1,000,000 people, some random winners can come out safe. Now, imagine only consisting of 10 participants, do you think any random participant can come out safe? The market is followed by many participants. So, random winners can very well happen, and this is something very normal, common, and usual: in a bull market, everyone is an expert.
Here's the same statistics spanning from the entire last year (2022) and until present date (last Friday). In summary, it's basically the same as for the entire 8 year period. What some people fail to recognize is that every new day in the market is basically a repetition of a similar day from the past. It’s the same patterns repeating themselves over and over again. Just look at last Friday. There's nothing special about last Friday. I wonder how many similar days we've had over the years. I could of course answer that, but asking rhetorically. Once in a while you get the outliers, but most days are a repetition over a common theme. So, again, I strongly disagree with the notion that markets are moving randomly. They’re not.
Could it come from traders closing their daily profits of a trade with a trend, which can reverse the price slightly?
Would guess yes - in case you are trading in the direction of a predominant trend. It should be more likely than not, that the trade would end up in profit. With random entry i ment the timing of entry is random - the direction of the trade is up to the trader
wealth is created as a civilization progresses by building things and improving its people’s standard of living (until it blows up). The stock market is a reflection of that wealth creation.
Just sharing my results of the test that reversion/breakout off the 1st minute bar is 50/50 outcome Rule: Faded the opening 1 minute range. Target and stop loss open till end of day. Testing during spring dst some half day holidays might've screwed up the results a bit 2021 3/15-11/5 2022 3/14-11/4 Win rate is 49% over all avg w/l =1.08 avg W=144.72 avg L=134.02 EV=$2.56 almost 50/50. letting the trades run seem to give it just a little edge overall. Moral of the story is, let it ride
Just showing the flip side of ORB, which I use. It's 50/50 at that scale. Incorporating stop and reverse, b/e, and fixed martingale seem to eek out a small edge from my own personal trading.