Day 16 Only one set of trades today for some decent profits. Total of 35 round turns in ES. Total losers $0.00 Total winners $9,851.10 Net profit $9,851.10 Ave. profit per-r/t of $281.46 or about 5.6 pts. per-contract Starting balance $329,481.18 Today's profits $9,851.10 Current balance $339,332.28 Year-to-date totals Total winners +$29,084.34 Total losers -$14,752.06 Total profit $14,332.28 Profit factor 1.97 Max Drawdown -$8,283.10 (2.45%) YTD Percent return +4.41% % of yearly goal ($500,000) +2.86% # winning days 2 # losing days 2 Total round turns 243 Profit in pts. per-contract 1.18 For 1/27 No trades for Friday. I'm putting aside adding the ER2 model since the trading frequency has come back to near normal for now. 43yotrader
hi 43yotrader - i am not quite seeing how a breakout strategy could make 6 pts per lot yesterday which was a range or zigzag day - to make 6 pts one had to buy low sell high or vice versa - i understand that you scale in and out but even assuming that i can't see how this could work out to this number of points - or perhaps you also traded the other strategy you mentioned which fades the breakout but i thought you said that this strategy locks only a small profit on the breakout, i would consider 6 pts a large profit... - i have done a lot of work on breakouts and scaling and i am interested to see how you work your logic, basically, i am not seeing what breakout logic could produce such a performance on a day like this... - i'd appreciate if you could, without giving out the specific details of your system, perhaps point out some levels for your entries/exits for yesterday and comment on your logic - thanks and all the best.
Well, here's your clue. The breakout points were loosened (as it normally does to prevent getting stuck in range-bound markets), so that no breakout trades were taken. The day to trade scan sometimes provides a bias so that you only take trades in one direction. Yesterday it had a bias to only take long trades. The only trade qualifying was the reversal trade that went long after the test of the previous days close and exited on the move past the 1280 level early in the day. I chose not to disclose it the night before though I don't think it would be any big deal. In the daily whether I trade tomorrow or not post, I'll start posting if there is a bias for the next day's trading. 43yotrader
thx 43yo - i misinterpreted your previous post and thought that you would take the reversal trade only if the breakout trade was taken... - since you trade the reversal setup independently, i am wondering if a day does not pass your screen as tradeable for the breakout trade, wouldn't that day have a better expectation for the reversal trade, i.e. if the day's chances of a breakout carrying through are lower based on your model, the chances of a failed breakout or reversal should tend to be higher... - so i am wondering why you are limiting the reversal trade to the breakout days... - i presume that you must have run your numbers for all days and it comes out that you make most by limiting your trading to these breakout days.. - the only other guess i can make is that you are looking for trading only on days which have better chances of follow-through on any move, either a breakout or reversal, such as for example high volume days... - in any case, i look forward to following your journal, all the best.
I originally did the reversal trade to help hedge losses from the breakout trades. That's why I only trade it on days when the breakout trades are active. Thursday's trade was an unforseen result of having a bias at times. The bias trades don't happen very often, though.
Day 19 Very hectic after the Fed meeting. Today my use of the modified Martingale mmgt sizing kicked in and saved me from a bad day. Was down all the losing trades ($8,430.42) before the last trade became a winner to save most of the day. I hate it when the market doesn't have a clear direction. I hope I made the brokers very happy with all the r/t's. I think I'm going to have a drink with dinner tonite. I think I earned it. The good news in all this was OpenECry kept up with the heavy volume while I watched my stops get hit in ESignal 15-30 seconds after I was filled. If it wasn't real money it would've been pretty funny just to watch. No really good trading days for the whole month. Hopefully February will be better. Total of 164 round turns in ES. Total losers $8,430.42 Total winners $7,952.36 Net loss $478.06 Ave. loss per-r/t of $2.92 Starting balance $339,332.28 Today's loss -478.06 Current balance $338,854.22 Year to date totals Total winners +$37,036.70 Total losers -$23,182.48 Total profit $13,854.22 Profit factor 1.60 Max Drawdown -$8,430.42 (2.48%) YTD Percent return +4.26% % of yearly goal ($500,000) +2.77% # winning days 2 # losing days 3 Total round turns 407 Profit in pts. per-contract .68 For Wednesday 2/1 No trades. 43yotrader