1. Find a better criteria for entry that has a higher probabilty of follow through. like a 3:1 ratio. Hint: be early and first! 2. find a leading indicator that will confirm the turn. Can you give me an example... I thought all indicators were lagging in nature.. which ones lead??? better entry.. how?? do you have an example for me.. do you mean to short at resistance levels??? I usually wait for a reversal candle in most of my trades.. then I try to enter on the next bar no lower/higher than the close of the reversal candle..
Flashboy, Hopefully he'll answer to be helpful. Also, do you usually trade the FOMC announcement? I mean...are you profitable with trading it based on past results? By the way...good trading in a day that was difficult for many. NihabaAshi
Thanks Nihabashi, I usually don't trade after a FOMC announcement.. so I don't have past results... I'll usually trade the morning up until 12:00 if something presents itself.. After the announcement I usually wait until the volatility goes down.. usually an hour or so after... I put on that trade right after the announcement because "I thought" the market was going down.. emotional trade.. not based on any plan.. just a bad trade that should have never taken place.. Hope this answers your question. Jeff
Thanks Jeff, Yep...those FOMC meetings seems to suck in a lot of traders that have the need (emotional) to be involved when they usually don't trade it. Once again...it was a difficult day and your following of your trading plan eventhough isn't 100% to your satisfaction... is still a good trading day. Lets put it like this...yesterday was not a good day to be completely ignoring one's trading plan...you did good via not falling deep into that trap. NihabaAshi
Thanks for the kind words Nihabashi.. 9 trades.. 5 wins 4 losses.. Gross Profit = $125 Day started off terrible. Not so much because of making bad trades but moving my stop too close once again.. you can see on the chart I was short the 2nd & 3rd trade of the day that would have resulted in a nice profit but moved stop too close and got stopped out.. after getting stopped out of the 3rd trade.. went long.. looking to get money back and basing trade off of 10 min. chart which very rarely turns out profitable for me. Another questionable move was at 13:30 when I bought at 986.00.. my plan calls for waiting till price pulls back & touches movg. avg. then forms positive bar.. I jumped in way too early.. part of trading emotionally trying to get money back from earlier losses.. Trade at 14:10 wasn't bad... here is when price touched the movg avg...then formed positive bar.. I did wait a little too long on this one.. should have gotten in at 985.00 rather than 985.50.. but still good trade and got out when shooting star formed and stochastics showed a divergence.. The last trade of the day was my savoire... what a way to end a bad day.. not just because it was very profitable.. but because "I FOLLOWED MY PLAN".. I moved my stop downward exactly according to my plan.. didn't cash out early to save profits.. I did decide to get out after the large down bar at the end.. and luckily was only .50 pts. from the low.. Lot of trades on this chart.. hope its legible.. Hope everyone had a good day.. Jeff
Hey, Please don't take anything I'm saying personally, or in a mean spirit. I find your posts agonizing because I've been in your situation more times than I care to think about, and posted the same trading charts you've been and struggling with the same stuff you have since I started trading spoos in 95. If you're interested I'd like to share with you what I'm doing and see if it makes any sense. gotta go, will answer more questions later. peace, TP
Hi Jeff, The chart was a little confusing for me to read especially among those first 3 trades because you didn't post the times of the trades. I've attached a chart of what I saw that smelled liked rotten food for Longs or smelled liked honey for Shorts... (As usual...hindsight is great. I usually catch this setup but missed it today) Once again...as part of my theme in your journal... beware of two long upper candlestick shadows within a 3 candlestick pattern at what initally looks like the market has found a base to bounce upwards from. P.S. This will be the last time I'll remind you about those long upper shadows when you have the urge to go Long or price entry areas for Short positions NihabaAshi
Nihabashi, Regarding the long upper candlestick shadows.. I have been paying attention to them.. and thanks for pointing that out to me.. its been very helpful.. If you look at my chart the first long .. with the long lower shadow.. the prior bar was an inside bar with a small upper shadow.. would that small bar have kept you from taking a long there? and the reason I closed out that long quickly and then decided to go short was based on the advice you had given me.. when the next bar after my entry (bar with the circle) showed a very long upper shadow.. my problem with that short was I moved my stop too close once the market moved a little in my favor.. when I took the long after those 2 shorts were stopped out was just plain stupidity.. emotions.. So what I'm saying is yes I have been applying your advice and it would have helped out wonderfully yesterday had I placed the appropriate stop. thanks for posting that chart.. will print it & look at it every night.. Jeff
No offense taken.. Would love to hear or see your ideas if you'd like to share them.. I'm a firm believer in finding your own style but you can sometimes find something useful in other's trading methods.. Looking forward to your reply. Jeff