... I know this is a trading arena and I'm as short-term a trader as anyone but some of these valuations are absolutely ridiculous so I have decided to put on some longer term positions. I will leg into these trades in 3 phases but would be very comfortable buying at these levels in one phase. I am long the following. I have long term targets but if we get some sort of mega dead cat bounce rally of 20-30% in a quick fashion I may just take profit.... I'm still a trader at heart USO from 24.55 target 47 and 60 RSX from 10.83 target 25 and 30 XHB from 8.92 target 19 and 22.50
I don't trade stocks (anymore). What are those symbols? P.S. Oil, Russia and Homebuilders. They're ecelectic to say the least.
Whether you're joking or not.. USO is oil, RSX is Russia, XHB is homebuilders I expect these to go lower as the trend is so definitively down, I'm not leveraged and am looking as these as very long term plays. Furthermore I only have 5% of my portfolio in these because I still need the majority of my portfolio for trading, I just wanted to point out the absurdity in the valuations IN MY OPINION of these ETF's.. just my opinion
I knew USO was oil, but I don't know the other two. I really just wanted to spur discussion on why you're catching the falling knife ... good luck.
It's an investment based on valuation with a small portion of my portfolio. I would never catch a knife for a trade.
russia (the country itself) is on the verge of bankruptcy. already used most of their currency reserves to prop up the ruble but it didnt prevent a huge currency haircut, which is still underway. they need oil price to increase two fold just to balance their current account. like i said, they're bust and the only way out of this is using their military power to secure some new sources of wealth. stay out of their currency and their stressed companies which can be nationalized anytime soon. oil is finished as a prime commodity. economies are shifting towards renewable environmental friendly fuels. i expect that within 10 years, most big cities around the globe will ban the use of fossil-fuel vehicles and many industries will have in place plans to phase out fossil fuel dependancy. dead cat bounce maybe but why risking money in doomed asset class? the amount of capacity put in place during the last years of the commodity boom is so overwhelming that most of these OPEP countries that fed on this bubble will be flooding the market with cheap oil just to feed their starving populations and prevent civil unrest. with the global economy on the brink of disaster and the environmental shift, oil will never return to its golden years and will suffer from a slow and painful death until its final demise (which will inevitably occur in less than 30 years). truth is, home builders are not necessary anymore. there are plenty of housing everywhere and no population growth. thus, they'll be stuck with no work in the near future. imagine the cost of scaling back their operations to cope with the present reality and the equally depressing future. in case the economy recovers sooner than later (an unlikely event), it is pretty obvious that other sectors such as technology or consumer products will be better positioned to benefit from it. IMO, if one wants to get some market exposure (which might be a good idea given the latest selloff), the prudent approach would be to buy the S&P500 rather than any of the above. the political risks and long term trends that are being shaped by the actual recession (energy shift and international turmoil) puts those assets in the junk area.
Just buy EWZ, which is a play on falling dollar and rising oil RSK isn't going to triple anytime soon. A 30% rally is feasible though.