Fla RE- will volume return

Discussion in 'Economics' started by jem, Mar 20, 2007.

  1. jem

    jem

    When will volume return to sales in FL.

    What will trigger it?

    I ask because I have been offered an opportunity to own a title company attached to a RE office.

    I have to set up the structure and there will be different costs and time frames involved.

    Just wondering if you think sales will drop even further.

    Please note lower prices might increase sales.
     
  2. blast19

    blast19

    That really depends on what area specifically I'd say.

    I don't know anything about Florida RE other than the fact that I'm going to buy a Miami Beach condo there sometime in the next year and a half and I expect prices to get a lot more competitive.

    Miami is in a league of its own with the overbuilding though.
     
  3. jem

    jem

    well so far everyone I have spoken with is bearish for volume and price. I have posed the question to lawyers, realtors and homeowners in San Diego and Fla.

    Can the masses be right when it is the masses who have to change the market as opposed to insiders and institutions.
     

  4. I disagree.

    Ever see a picture of Sau Paulo or even modern Chicago and Toronto?

    Miami STILL lags in construction.

    IMO, in twenty years Miami will be far more developed than today.

    I laugh when bears on Miami point to the dozen or so cranes downtown. So what. 12 new buildings x 300 units equals what? Less than 4000 apartments? Oh my gosh!! What calamity! How can Miami possibly add a massive 4000 new residents?

    These buildings are a drop in the bucket compared to the demand from South American, European, Canadian and New York buyers.
     
  5. the real volume will return in 2 years, when boomers will physically be moving down for good.

    SE Florida for example is really 3 different animals which get lumped together distoring the picture for everyone.

    #1 you have Miami so overbuilt + unfavorable demographics it is going to take a long time to

    #2 new communities build around ghettos in broward and palm beach counties. anybody who might be interested in living there, got priced out 2 years ago, since then it was all speculators. These properties will get hit the hardest, as price declines will not entice people to take another look at them.

    #3 Good areas/cities with limited development, Boca Raton, Small Parts of Fort Lauderdale and Delray beach. This is almost as if they werent part of SE Florida bubble, properties came in 10-15% but there is still demand, and when boomers do come down this is where they will be looking.
     
  6. they are going to build 50,000 units....
     
  7. everybody and their mother has a title company down here which was brought about from the liquidity in the market which is long gone..unless you have a hookup as in a mortgage company giving you the leads you better think twice..peace
     
  8. TM1

    TM1

    I can tell you that the Tampabay area is still terrible, and imo getting worse. I was talking to a local business owner last week that I once worked for and he was telling me how a large portion of his customer base was moving out of state to places like Kentucky and North Carolina.

    The problem is even more pervasive down here; the insurance rates alone are forcing many people out, the loss in equity isn't that big of a deal among long time residents but the insurance is completely out of control.

    One more thing to consider; if we even get one Cat 3+ landfalling hurricane, we might all be moving out of this state with the impact it will have on insurance. Did I mention that Citizens is currently a half billion under funded in claims revenue for this year and that they are on the hook for $327 billion worth of property....ouch.
     
  9. jem

    jem

    Thats why I posed the question. I can be the title guy for four RE offices but I will be fronting reasonable rent and a full time employee. In this market right now, it will could be break even and not worth the time I would have to put in. But if the volume returns I could be making money like Pabst on the floor in the old days.
     
  10. blast19

    blast19

    This is the second time in two days you've blatantly just made up bullshit numbers:

    http://www.therealdeal.net/issues/MARCH_2007/1172645281.php

    It's already getting tiring researching how wrong you are. Miami has a lot more than a dozen cranes you idiot.

    Are you a RE agent or something? :D
     
    #10     Mar 21, 2007