I have lost todays bet and it was very close i was short into the close at 1369.3 but with comission we needed to close at 1367 or under.We could have gone either way in the last 15 minutes.I said down,sideways then a rally, tailing off and that was pretty close to how it went today.There was a big markup at 12.30 and it makes me think of market manipulation on the back of the banking testimony today.The whole afternoon felt as though they were desperate to keep it in the green at the close (this is not 'i lost,the market is manipulated' whinging,just my reading on things!)If you believe the market is manipulated,you should be able to recognise the signs-big markups around resistance and bear patterns,for example,and take advantage of that.So why didn't i? Simple risk control,i had 2 bets running already.In this case the previous close looked like becoming resistance and ADV vol was never convincing before the markup.So, is this sideways consolidation on a smaller daily range accumulation or distribution?Its hard to tell but i spend a lot of time thinking and very little time trading until i see something that makes me click buy/sell.I have to feel compelled.I am expecting the second trade into tomorrows close (same price) to lose but who knows,maybe we will have a friday selloff but that's probably too obvious,though the predicted pattern is usually a swing trading day with a bearish bias.
I am short at 1376.2 at 12.50.The bet expires at 3pm.1376 is near yesterdays high and we had hit 1378(the price i really wanted) before i placed the bet which is +0.618% from the close yesterday and near R-1 on the pivots.The price dropped as my bet started which is a problem you have with 'intraday up/down' rather than the 'double' which you can enter immediately
I have placed a second short at 1379.5 at 1.50pm to end at 3pm. Hopefully these last 2 bets will cancel out yesterdays loser and what will almost certainly be a losing trade for tonights close (short 1369.3 placed on tuesday)
These 2 bets have won today.You can see the live chart entries/exits here :http://www.holygrailtrading.webs.com/freelivecalls.htm and compare them to todays predicted pattern which shows you why i entered the trades (note,if you are following this link a few days after this post was made the page may have been updated so scroll down the page to find them.At some point in the future they will appear in 'live call archives' )
I am long into tomorows close (tues) at 1372.3.The bet was placed around 3.40.Since the trend appears to be up at the moment and the bull% indicator has,on friday,turned to 'bull confirmed' and recent closes have been around this area,with higher highs/lows in the last 3 days, the trade seemed to make sense.We have seen 1383 medium term resistance broken briefly at the high today(1386.7) and i think we will see another attempt to break it tomorrow.Thursday,friday and todays intraday patterns are remarkably similar (fractuals?)
I have added to my long position.I bought at 1364.9 at 10.10am and the bet expires at 3.50 (i am taking advantage of the lower commission of 0.02% by using the 'intraday up' rather than betting on the close using the 'double' though i will still double my stake if i win)So i am betting that 1364 medium term support holds
I have just added another long at 1364.5 into tomorrows close (weds)at 1.44pm With commission,the S&P must close at 1367 or above.
This thread shows just how hard it is to predict the future; please keep posting very interesting thread.
Thanks for the comment kinggyppo.You're right and yet to the inexperienced since price can only go up or down,in theory a 50/50 chance at any one time,with a bit of study you would think you could turn the odds in your favour easily.As experienced traders know only too well,the chances of doing that are slim to none for most people.I have put a massive amount of time,blood sweat and tears(well,almost tears!) into this because i want to crack this more than anything i have ever done in my life.It's not that i want to make loads of money,that has never been the motivation.I only want to make enough money to continue being self employed with the freedom that gives you.I was in the building trade for 23 years until the uncontrolled immigration into the UK wiped my business out.I just couldnt compete with the cheap labour.At the time,talk like that and you would be considered a racist by those who have no understanding of my predicament with nothing to fall back on.Ironically,only today the government has announced that they intend to subject immigrants to stricter controls regarding whether they can remain here.Too late,the damage is done.If i dont succeed at this i face a very uncertain future,but that's life.The signature at the bottom of my posts is how i live.I will not give up unless i am beaten and know it.But back to predicting the future! Well,todays predicted pattern was similar to recent days,but i decided today that it would 'invert' (be upside down) and i drew it that way on my site-bearish,not bullish.That was the correct interpretation and it called for a sharp turn at 1.30.That turn came an hour late at 2.30.Knowing that yesterdays bet into todays close(long at 1372.3) would lose,i needed to cancel out that loss and this mornings winning long at 1364.9 (expired at 3.50)was a bet that 1364 support would hold despite a bearish day.(i am also long into tomorrows close at 1364.5)Had this mornings bet expired at the close it would have lost but at 3.50 it won (a bet on the close would have been 2.5 points commission instead of the 0.02% on the bet i made and these 2 factors made all the difference)So as predictions go,not bad but at the moment the account is still 2 bets in the red,and all i am managing to do at the moment is to slow down losses to a painfull crawl! I really think the answer to that is to increase the stake after a losing bet,but i want to try and increase the account size first before i do that.Inspite of everything,i really feel closer to ultimately succeeding than i have ever been.I am no longer overtrading or revenge trading or going for low probability bets.I think i can justify all the bets so far on technicals,and there are days where i can happily do nothing which used to be incredibly hard when you know theres money on the table.If there are any newbies reading this my best advice i can give you is.a) be prepared to work harder at this than you ever imagined b) the market is repetative so concentrate on taking advantage of the one universal truth anyone can clearly relate. c) almost all the losses you suffer in the early days will be to do with emotions rather than strategy.
I think that money management and controlling the emotions is the hardest. I have gotten used to the winning and losing and up/downs, but this shit can drive you crazy when you pile on the rest, but that is any business. Here in the states we are starting to feel the pain form the big liquidity party, thank God there is an election or there would be much worse stuff going on for the average Joe. Good trading.