Just got away with the first bet by not betting on the close where it would have lost and the second trade won by a mile.Gambling that the lehman story was overdone panic selling paid off and i took the opportunity to be long at 1373 (including commission) into tomorrows close.But really,should i be buying this weak market or are we just going sideways? My strategy should have had me short from fridays highs but i gambled that monday would edge up to 1410 in early trading where i would have gone short.That scenario didn't work out and the opportunity was lost.Going forward i should only be buying 1364 or selling 1383 now we have closed below there,then buying on friday into the following friday if the weeks low appears there.It's days like these that i am glad i am using fixed odds rather than binaries or spreadbets-a day like this not so long ago would have possibly wiped out my account before reversing into what would have been a profit.No wonder some argue that trading with only disaster stops pays off,but you need deep pockets for that which i dont have.But i dont think that is very skillfull trading if you find yourself in that situation often. Even though i averaged down on my second trade,i figured that 2.30pm would be a likely reversal point,that the panic was overdone and yesterdays low 1377.7 -0.618% = 1369.1 not far off the days low (1370.1).In hindsite my 1370.8 entry was good,but of course we could have headed lower.And with todays close at 1377.6,my 1373 long into weds close looks in doubt. A trending day is due tomorrow and that needs to be long for me!
Long 1381.1 -10.30am to 3.50pm.Not an ideal entry but the price moved before my bet started.But i think although we may drop near the lows of the session again,1383 may well be broken by the end of the day as thev predicted pattern shows higher prices near the close. Incidently,even with yesterdays suprising drop the fibonacci worked out: MON LOW 1377.7 - 0.618% = 1369.1 TUES LOW- 1370.1 TUES HIGH 1393.1 - 1.618% =1370.5
Long 2.30pm to 3.50pm at 1377.9 still think we will close above yesterday but not as strong as it looked earlier.
Second time i have averaged down and got away with it and yesterdays long 1373 into todays close gave me a win today.I dont want to be making a habit of this though.We were on target for a decent rally until the panic selling turned 1383 into resistance after it had become support.The jobs figure on friday will probably settle the issue for now anyway.But considering how jittery the market is maybe i should be on the short side(translated,means the market is probably heading back to 1400!)
I have got away with it last 2 trading sessions not sticking to my rules so i am standing aside today.But... if i was trading i would be short from mid day as the predicted pattern (which has inverted today) shows a reversal all the way into the close.May not be that severe today but there's a good chance we have already seen the high today. Put it another way, with the market so jittery recently,who wants to hold long for any length of time into the close?
Standing aside today avoided getting my ass handed to me,looks like luck is on my side this week.Will be looking to go short at 1410 tomorrow into the following friday if we get there.If we go higher, i will go short near end of day,as the strategy dictates selling strength/buying weakness into following week and increasing stakes after losers.I didn't go short from last week and that could be another bit of good luck-the previous week was a winner (long 1376.6) Surely i can't go too far wrong shorting weekly highs in a bear market? That sounds like an account breaking statement! But i have increased the account size 5 fold but kept stake size the same as before (so far) and i am trading less,trying to pick my battles. But i am reminding myself of some of my customers when i was in the building trade-they had lots of shiny new tools in the garage but they couldn't even put up a shelf!
Long 1.30pm to 3.50pm at 1376.7. I decided it would be a mistake to buy 1383 this morning in the face of heavy decl vol but think it's worth risking going long around the recent lows.
Long into the close 1369.8- with comish we need to close at 1372 .Also long at 1375 (inc com) into next friday
Days like yesterday are always a suprise to most i would guess. Average positions yesterday on betonmarkets were long and i noticed a lot of traders on the es journal were trying to go long.I thought i was safe when there was a very quick 5 point rally late in the day before we headed even lower and i admit i have averaged down my long position into the last 3 days of next week at 1364. I had been patient all day not buying 1383 early in the day and in 20/20 hindsite selling an expected break of support into the close would have been smart, but who knew just how deep the loss would be?.Its always difficult when the market gaps down and drops quickly to find a short entry particularly for me since i only bet on the close. What helped me pull the trigger on this long position is apart from the fact that if we get a bounce it would be the ideal entry was something i read recently here. I can't credit the guy as i can't find the post,but basically he said that there are always many opportunities to enter a trade and lose but relatively few times to get an excellent entry into winning trade that runs far.That comment really resonated with me.If i am wrong i'm wrong but i wont lose much and if you dont take these sort of trades you end up saying coulda,woulda,shoulda.