Any particular reason why the BUND/BOBL DEC 08 contract has traded so few contracts on a payrolls day? ( 2.50pm London time ) and only 380,000 traded in the Bunds. Any ideas?
part of a new and growing trend for fixed income futures in general. eurex figures for last month on month and year on year are all down 20 to 30 percent. liffe fixed income futures the same m/m y/y all down 20 percent. i have said on elite trader several times that volume overall was headind down. the reasons i stated were the usual but even i did not anticipate how much funds and banks were trading on leverage arbed positions and causing volumes to spike and increase over the last 10 years. well not anymore they aint. the exchanges will now experience a period of the worse exchange volume drop ever seen over the coming years as the market tries to re inflate and re invent itself. in a period of record high volatility their volume on fixed income has gone down. that is a very big statement in itself
I also thought the party would have to come to an end but didn't see it happening this way. I suppose it was inevitable when the exchanges sit back and let a handful of people do whatever they want regardless of the impact they are having on the market,even though they are fielding hundreds of calls about really unacceptable behaviour and do nothing except offer a piss poor answer. The interesting thing will be which contracts get lost forever when this has all passed.At the moment it looks like 30yr at CBOT,Bobl at Eurex and Sterling on LIFFE. It takes years to build liquidity and confidence in these products and a few months to lose,IMO the exchanges were asleep at the wheel.
The interest rate derivatives segment reached turnover in November of 34.3 million contracts (Nov 2007: 63.8 million). The Euro Bund Future traded 12.7 million contracts, followed by the Euro Schatz Future with 9.0 million contracts and the Euro-Bobl-Future with 7.9 million. This was taken from the Eurex website. Any thoughts?
just posted the exact stats with links. ive said it all along and still maintain my view. expect exchange mergers and government assistance as this gets worse. staff on high wages. algos on low transaction costs. plummetting volume. the exchanges cannot survive this environment. same as the banks. the model does not work. they got greedy and now they will pay the price.