http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7419.html I use to think these guys where far more "Doom" than real news. That was until they broke the fact that the RBS said a Major Banks in the US would fall and the Global Economy is heading for a recession. 3 months after reading ( I saved the article) that report that was issued to global banks, broke by this site, BS goes under. This site does not hold back, they have no "Interest" in pretending a rebound is coming. They are, from so far, my research and taking positions based on their writtings...SPOT FUCKING ON!
'2 years of "Public Works" for infrastructure. Construction companies of Non-residential are going to fair well. Energy Companies are going to do gang buster profits in 09, well into 2010.' Where is the money gonna come to finance such projects. If the US govt. prints those bucks then we are talking inflation. That is why US is trying to borrow $300B from middle east instead of going ahead and trying to print bucks. The $700B bailout package should save 4M homes from foreclosing at avg. price of 200K each. Main reason was to keep the liquidity in the system otherwise bad home loans would have forced banks to stop lending. Saving the 4M householders from getting thrown on the street will not only allow arrest the rapid decline of the RE market, it will also allow these households to spend the monthly mortgage amounts for expenses just in case they lose jobs. Remember, it is a temporary bailout, the householders still owe the monies for the loan but now to the US Government which is willing to show much more patience than the banks. Something drastic has to be done to kill off the derivatives WMD. Warren Buffet warned on these few years ago but politicians did not listen and now middle class is paying.
Mvic I agree with most of what you have had to say in this thread, but I have an uneasy feeling that there's a...I guess one could consider it a 'backlog' of redemptions that have either been called or will be called, but not satisfied yet, and that the forced selling will have to continue without a tremendous move to the upside, and I just can't comprehend how that's going to happen if the fundamental economic news remains as glum as it has been or gets worse (especially if earnings disappoint). When Roubini warns that things are going to deteriorate much more severely throughout '09, I almost instinctively want to jump up and yell "but the U.S. equity market has corrected nearly 50%!," but I fear Roubini is right nonetheless.
Thanks, I got lucky (news of potential change in Chinese Iron ore 2009 contract date from April to Jan), I expect that I will be able to buy back in under $5 again soon enough. Long term though I think this one is a winner especially with all this infrastructure talk. A lot of steel needed for roads and bridges amongst other stuff.