Yea, commodities and energy long-term. Oil is a gimmie trade at these prices. It might even go to 40 bones.
Yes. That is true. He can also look at your eyes and say blunt lies in a way as if he believes it. I agree with you on the other parts though. I don't know why Reagan is popular. maybe because of Iran Contra.
I am making more money daily in this wild price action than I did before. So what is the reason I should stop and wait? Wait for what... for volatility to go back under 30 again? I think not.
Maybe I missed it in the article, but the guy doesn't give ONE SINGLE reason for identifying February as a time to get back into the market. Articles like these appearing in the financial press actually make me more bullish as the SPX has fallen 25% ( up until Friday ) since the Election.
And I yours, your GET THE HELL out thread started back in Feb will surely go down in the annals of ET history as one of the great calls. It could be that recovery will not be as fast but the main point is that if volatility dries up and there is not a lot of low hang fruit type trading opportunities to be found then putting a chunk in to commodities will likley be the best game in town for the reasons previously stated (also, as boomers retire they will be pulling money out which will also put a damper on recovering the old highs in the markets but their spending of that money will also support commodities).
If you work for a "Public Traded Company", your chances of being laid off, starting Jan 09 are very good. If you work in Service, Banking, Financial, Gov, Retail, the chances of you being laid off starting first quarter are very good. Obama has stated his 2 year economic plan to "Jump" start the economy. 2 years of "Public Works" for infrastructure. Construction companies of Non-residential are going to fair well. Energy Companies are going to do gang buster profits in 09, well into 2010. The Depression should become evident near 3rd quarter of 09, when the "Million" of jobs that OBAMA is trying to save, still fall to the way side. Unemployment 3rd quarter should reach 14%. It's over folks. You can preach bottom, you can call rebound, you can pretend you have money, you can dance in the streets all you want. The Media has yet to really touch the surfice of "GLOOM". 1873, not 1920s. the LONG DEPRESSION is where we are heading. There will be pockets of "Safe area's" with solid job markets but the majority of the country will be unemployed. Nothing we can do but to continue to make money while you can and prepare. Nothing to Fear. Just weather the storm and survive.
And I yours Pabst, you are a trader's trader and know your stuff. The volatility will likely persist through the end of the year and yes it is great for day trading but this is not the time to put on trades with any kind of size unless they are of the buy and hold type that it makes sense to leg in to as opportunities present, as in the commodity trade for example. You know the old adage that the 1st and last 5% of any move are the most expensive to catch and I think that we are in that territory. I am trading very small these days keeping powder dry (and my sanity intact ) for when a clearer picture of what is coming next emerges, probably sometime early next year as the markets get a better idea of how the credit crisis will resolve and how Obama is planning to govern. I am not so sure that he will be business as usual, looks to me like the Dems are going to throw some "hail marys" as his new CoS has been fond of saying of late. Over the years I have found it profitable to pick a macro theme, last year and this it was short emerging markets, and to opportunistically leg in to a position, try and day/swing trade counter trend moves (Anek's AHG thread and his other posts have helped me tremendously in this regard), and once a strong trend is established sell premium on retracements. The next macro theme will be commodities again, and surely at some point a big move in long bonds, though I think it is way too early to look for that until there is BOTH a resolution to the credit crisis and some visibility as far as where the economy is going for the next 2 years.