2 trades today. I really tried to stay in the flow of the market and not force anything. There were a lot of trades to take, but I tried to let the market tell me where price was going so I didn't see a lot of the trades at the time. Trade A: Break of the opening bar. You'd have to hold on until it picked up some momentum. It went exactly to +20 to the tick and then had a bounce. We would have had our target in way in advance so maybe we would have gotten a fill. Trade 1: Second entry long, higher low on the 1min. This was one where I let the market tell me where price was going. I didn't try to fight it. I just went with it and trusted it. It stuck around the +1 range for a little bit, briefly dipped into the red, but then went on to target. It was a good exit as it was right at the EMA. +20 Trade B: Bounce off the EMA, shooting star. I felt like there was a reversal coming and that the downside didn't have much room to move. With a strong move up to this bar, and the acceleration from the lows, I thought maybe there would be a 2nd leg pullback. Trade C: I almost shorted this. It was a double bottom, second pullback, second entry, slight overshoot of the downtrend line, rejection of the EMA. Something didn't feel right about it so I stayed out. I think I also got up from my computer around this time to do something. Trade D: The D bar one ticked down below the C bar so we're probably going up now. I didn't like this that much because it was sitting under the EMA. Trade 2: I had to think about this one for a little bit, but eventually I ended up taking it. Double bottom at a new low of the day. It was very counter trend and I didn't feel good about it so I moved my stop quickly. My sim got me in at a different price than what I wanted and got me out at a better price so it gave me +3 on this one. Trade E: Bull trap, one tick above the highs of the previous bar. I always miss these unless it's really obvious or unless I'm watching for it. It was a continuation with the trend. I think I was still trying to analyze my last trade and figure out whether it was a good trade or not. Trade F: We have what looks to be a true reversal off the lows. It was the first time all day where it really looked like a reversal was coming. Now I'm looking long here. I was trying to let price tell me what it was going to do and this F bar was the first time I really had an idea. I didn't take it because I just wasn't sure with the EMA just above. I watched it and tried to play it in my mind. It definitely gave you enough time to decide what to do. I watched the 1min chart closely and there was a double bottom around the 81.13 area so I mentally moved my stop to 82.12 and it eventually came back and would have stopped me out at +4. Trade G: This one isn't easy to see on the 5min. It was looking good on the 1 min chart along with a confirmation of the move off of the EMA. It just had a good feel to it. I didn't take this either because I hesitated. I had a chance to get in when it came back and tested the 1min 20 EMA, but I just watched it. I really liked this trade though. It felt good. I should have taken it. You would have eventually gotten twenty ticks out of this if you were willing to hold through the small pullback, which isn't shown on my chart above. Sim: +22 (2 trades, 2W/0L) Monthly Sim: +6.5 (23 trades, 16W/7L) hTotal: +31 (6 trades, 4W/2L) Monthly hTotal: +466.5 (73 trades, 54W/19L) I am being conservative on that hTotal today. I could easily say what I would have done differently, but I try to make sure to add in the trades that I actually took and then work my way through the day as if I followed my strategy properly. Trading felt good today. I felt in the zone. It's a good way to be, not feeling impatient, not feeling like you're missing out on something, not forcing trades, not trying to make something out of nothing. I think when I keep myself in that mindset that I start seeing the chart more clearly. I wasn't this way on Friday and that really hurt me. I was trying to force too many trades. Today I just tried to keep an open mind and let the market tell me what it wanted me to do. I still have to keep my ears open, listen, and take the trades. Sometimes before I take a trade I'll talk myself through the trade like I do on here and it starts to make sense. That is why I took Trade 2. I just talked myself into the trade, but I wasn't completely sure that it was a good trade with that strong red bar straight down from its open. Overall, even though I should have been taking more trades today, I'm happy that I got 23 ticks. Sitting through the weekend was tough after going through Friday where I just kept taking losses. I started to question what I was doing and if there was a better way to be trading. I'm not one to give up on the first sign of trouble. I can't expect to have a flawless day. I'm going to keep an eye on this strategy and work on it, but I think over time I'm going to end up developing this to fit how I like to trade. I know for one thing that it has been helping me to sit through trades and become more patient. I've had several times in the last 4 trading days, since starting this where I've seen the trades for what they are and not just jump out on the first tick against me. There have been trades where I stayed in because it still looked good in the direction of my trade. I like to think that I'm slowly starting to develop my experience for trading Crude Oil. I've been doing this for about 4 months now. I've taken some bruises in my live account, but I think if I wouldn't have tried trading live like I did, then I wouldn't really understand what I need to work on and realize that I need to take a step back. Just trading in sim from the beginning would always make me feel like I was missing out on something, that I would have no problem doing this live. I probably wouldn't take sim trading as serious as I do now. I definitely have a different outlook on trading seeing how difficult it can be. I still look forward to really understanding trading and getting the hang of it. The journey is slow, but the path I'm taking is starting to straighten out. Over the weekend I pulled a book off my shelf just to flip through it quickly and while skimming the first chapter there was something that caught my eye on the section of Self-Sabotage. I find myself getting distracted a lot so I started to read a little bit about this just to see if it fit my problem: "After practicing psychiatry for many years, I became convinced that most failures in life are due to self-sabotage. We fail in our professional, personal, and business affairs not because of stupidity or incompetence, but to fulfill an unconscious wish to fail." - Dr. Alexander Elder - Trading For a Living
There's something about you that I like for some reason. I honestly think you're a good guy. So now do you understand why I was ignoring your advice early on? Especially about sim trading? With six years of prior experience in trading, I can tell what kind of advice I'm being given. I think you were being genuinely honest in helping. Good luck.
I didn't take any trades today. I should have. After all, it's just sim and I should be trying things, taking trades, figuring out how to trade this choppy mess. I had expected that today was going to end up back and forth like this with the holiday coming up. I was still watching for trades and although I hesitated on taking trades I still tried to play them mentally as I would have if I actually took the trade. Trade A: Go long off the opening bar. It didn't move quickly off the break of the bar, but holding on would have given you 20 ticks. I didn't take this one at the time because the opening bar was so big and I thought, "That bar is way too big, no way it's going up more." So yeah, I missed out on this one. Trade B: After such a strong run up and then a big drop back down, I saw this as a lower high. It's still counter trend, in my opinion, since it's above the EMA. Price went 11 ticks before turning around. I'd get out at breakeven here. Trade C: You would have had to see this one in real-time. The bar after the C bar went down to its lows and then had the look like it was coming back. You'd have to be quick to recognize this and trust yourself. This would have been another breakeven trade. Trade D: Starting to get this back and forth movement. I was wondering if this was a higher high so I was hesitant. However, it seems like it's hitting some kind of resistance and turning lower. Would have been good for 20 ticks. Trade E: Seemed like a failure to go lower and that you'd be buying at the lower end of the micro-range. I wasn't so sure about this one since it was starting to get a barbed wire look. Would have been another breakeven trade. Trade F: This one kind of jumped out at me, but I didn't take it since the market was putting me to sleep. It finally looks like CL is starting to wake up to go higher. You have an internal double bottom and a close above the EMA. It had the look and feel that it wanted to go higher with that strong green bar. With the entire day being back and forth I played this in my mind a little tighter and got out at +11. Sim: 0 Monthly Sim: +6.5 (23 trades, 16W/7L) hTotal: +51 (6 trades, 6W/0L) Monthly hTotal: +517.5 (79 trades, 60W/19L) Not really sure what is going on lately. I don't know if I'm giving up on myself, not trying as hard as I had been, just not in the right mental state, I don't know. I've been really tired lately. It seems the more I sleep the more tired I am all day. When I'm tired I have trouble focusing. I get up early enough to get moving, but I just can't get my mind clear and ready to start trading from the opening bar. I think partly it is that I feel like I'm struggling. I'm trying to work on this trading, but it's mainly just working on myself. It's like working on my own psychological problems is wearing me out. When I think too hard I start to get really tired. It's been something that I've dealt with ever since I started getting into investing and trading several years ago. When trying to think of ways to invest, trade, do whatever, it just wears me down to the point where I have to separate myself completely from whatever that is just to clear my mind. It's like trying to fight the waves of the ocean. The more you try, the more tired you get, and you begin to realize you really haven't gotten anywhere so then you decide that fighting the waves just isn't worth it and you lay back and float and just let it take you to wherever it wants to take you. I was really motivated last week, middle of the week when I started working on a new strategy, and then Friday really set me back and I feel like I haven't been able to put that behind me. The fact that I took the loss isn't the problem. It's sim and really has no effect on my live account. The problem is just mental and making me wonder whether I'm really starting to understand this or whether the market is just playing mind games with me. Yes, I'm doubting myself, and doubting myself sets me back even further. Each day that I trade I see all of these profitable trades come and go and for some reason it just feels like I always end up taking the losing trades or when I finally do take a trade, it's the one that ends up being a losing trade. Some days I feel like I'm really starting to get this and then most other days I get so frustrated that I just want to walk away from this and do something else with my life. If I had some kind of consistency I know that without a doubt I wouldn't be questioning anything. I've had a lot of people tell me to not give up and I really think that is why I'm still trying. Every time I tell myself I'm going go into sim and swing away, I just end up either not doing that and watching good trade after good trade go on without me only to have me see how great a trade it would have been or I start taking trades, take losing trade after losing trade and then I doubt myself so then I start to tighten up and be too conservative and then I stop taking trades. It's a loop. I don't know. I'm going to take the extra long holiday weekend and think about what I'm doing here. Anyways, tomorrow I am going to be late as I have something I have to do in the morning. I'm expecting another back and forth day.
I missed the open today because I had to be somewhere this morning. I got back just after the Crude Inventories was reported. I took 1 trade, which was a losing trade. I missed a good long signal. Trade A: Short off the opening bar. Would have to move the stop to breakeven. Trade B: This was a short signal off the 1min chart. You would have to play it very tight since it was very countertrend. Trade C: Pullback continuation long. Was a really nice signal and would have been a no heat trade for 20 ticks. Trade 1: I was starting to look short with it looking like it was getting toppy. There was an internal double bottom. It popped down quickly and for about 2 seconds I considered moving my stop to breakeven, but I didn't. It came all the way back and stopped me out at -14 (sim slippage). Bad trade management here. I should have went with my instincts. Trade D: Double top, but the Trade 1 didn't go down and it just felt like it had some bullish strength. I liked this entry here because any pop above this double top would probably propel it to the high of the day and maybe get an additional pop beyond that. This was a very quick trade for 20 ticks. Trade E: Another pullback continuation and a slight pop above the new high of the day gave you another nice 20 ticks. Sim: -14.5 (1 trade, 0W/1L) Monthly Sim: -8 (24 trades, 16W/8L) hTotal: +27.5 (5 trades, 3W/2L) Monthly hTotal: +545 (84 trades, 63W/21L) I'm being conservative on this hTotal again. If I would have played the actual losing trades as breakeven trades I would have made somewhere around +60. I'd like to think I would have the foresight to be able to play them correctly. I could have (should have) moved my stop on my actual sim trade to breakeven and I would have been able to lock in a tiny profit today. Oh well. Another learning opportunity. I don't really have much to say today. I wasn't expecting much out of the market given it was the last day before Thanksgiving. I was partly right on my prediction that the market would probably be sideways...until the Crude news came out. I have to admit today was a day where you just have to take something out of the market. It basically handed over a profit to you without trying to shake you out. So I think since we're going to a small break that I'm going to take a break from posting in this journal for a little bit. My purposes for starting this journal was to hold myself accountable for my trading, to hopefully have some people come in and post some advice to give me a different angle on my trading, and to just see the possibilities with keeping track of the trades throughout the day. After awhile it became apparent to me that it wasn't exactly a good measure of my actual potential. I mean, the potential is obviously there, but the reality is that managing a trade is much different than just hopping in and out of trades in a way that is beneficial to me after the fact. In talking to some great traders I have come to the conclusion that I just need to get more aggressive in sim and just go for it, to get sim out of the way, to prove to myself that as long as I'm following my rules that by the end of the day or week I will be profitable. I don't know how long ago it was, but there was a night where I came to the realization that I tend to feel like I always have to be right. When I came to that realization I could feel the weight being lifted off my shoulders because it was like I was finally getting some answers to where I was going wrong. Over time, after that, I feel like I may have forgotten that I can't be that way. So in just going off on my own again without this journal I am going to try and just trade the heck out of CL in sim and see where I end up. I think I've been averaging 1 or 2 trades a day with my most being 8 trades. 1 or 2 trades a day is clearly not going to cut it. I'm really not learning much when I watch more and more go on without me. I think that if I can try and trade 15-20 times a day in sim it may just prove to myself that I can really do this. I have to get it out of my head that I have to be in pursuit of a perfect day. I've always had it in the back of my mind that there was a way to conquer this thing in a way that I would be able to predict the moves with a greater accuracy, and I've always felt like trading too much was overtrading. Nonetheless, to get rid of all of this rambling, I'm just going to say that I'm going to take a break from this journal so that I can be a little more aggressive and not feel the need to really have a reason why I took the trade and give my analysis why. I've had a few people PM me in the last couple of months and I'd like to thank them for following me. I'd also like to thank those who contributed something positive and thoughtful and never gave up on me. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving! "Traders who are not at peace with themselves often try to fulfill their contradictory wishes in the market. If you do not know where you are going, you will wind up somewhere you never wanted to be." - Dr. Alexander Elder