haha Well, maybe that is something to look forward to! j/k I'm not going to defend what I said and make up an excuse for why I said it. I'm having trouble coming up with a good way to explain what I meant by that. I guess what I meant was that I look forward to not having to try and fight my emotions and just become a machine in taking signals knowing and trusting the probabilities will work themselves out. I agree what I said sounded pretty awful. Right now I'm constantly battling over myself in some of the major trading mistakes such as fear of missing out, fear of the unknown, and overall just not trusting myself. Overcoming those will just come in time when I start taking more signals and becoming comfortable with putting on a trade. Just like when I get in my car and go somewhere, I don't think about how to drive, I just do. I don't feel anxiety when I get in my car. I look forward to the days when I don't feel that anxiety anymore and I can just get up in the morning, turn on my computer, and take some trades without hesitation, all in a day's work.
hey... me too. I look forward to the same thing, myself. It's only been since 1999 in this game for me... shouldn't be very long now to summarize what I think you said, you see yourself in "cautious scalper" mode or 1-1 ratio quick-hit, low risk, ring the register mode. then someday when you follow that approach long enough to make a bunch of money, then you can shift gears and let some winners run without sweating thru four t-shirts in the process. reality is, if risk-free cautious scalping worked at all, it is all any of use would ever do. why would we shift gears "someday" if the first path led to success? truth is, we must all face the fears and do it right from step one. CL/QM is a very methodical, technically sound market. take the trades, honor the stops, let winner run. the same ones taken off at +10 cents or +20 cents very often, aka constantly run +100 cents and more so just assume all of your CL trades will do that... and a goodly number of them actually will. you won't care about the others which stop short after that
The first step is just do it a lot. When I took my son to get his learner's permit during rush hour on a late Friday afternoon, he'd only driven a car twice in the school parking lot on a Sunday. I was afraid to drive with a brand new teenaged driver and I figured he was afraid to drive without ever having taken driver's ed or at least practiced a little outside a parking lot. So I figured I'd get us both over our fear quickly and I handed him the keys, gave him a primer on the basics (trend, support & resistance, so to speak) and told him to drive me home. He did great, I did great, and a month later he was driving us to New Mexico for vacation. Just do it a lot!
Didn't really get any signals today. There were a couple places that had the possibilities of a trade, but nothing was really clear as I like to see them. Trade A: Lower high after what looked like a reversal. I put in a sell stop, but the price went higher. When it went 1 tick above the high of the A bar, I pulled my order off. Trade B: This isn't a signal, but I just wanted to point out that I was looking for it to test the EMA before dropping lower. I wanted a deeper pullback. It never happened. Trade C: I had added those trend lines in there back around the A bar. It was interesting to see it come all the way down and touch the uptrend line. It made an overshoot, but it didn't have the strong failed breakout look so I wanted to see a second entry. We basically got that here, but I wanted to point out the 1 tick under the low reversing back up. I missed it at the time, but it looks good after the fact. Would have been a nice trade. Trade D: Price came back up and looked like it was bouncing off the EMA. It was too much of a doji bar that it seemed like it wasn't going to be a clean bounce. It wasn't a clear trade. So no trades today, but I'm feeling more and more confident each day. I start the day with intentions to take trades, but haven't seen any in 2 days. I think my problem now is that I know what I'm looking for so I'm not considering any other setups. I know there is the saying that you should just wait for your signal, but I know that there are other patterns that work just as well that I know I can implement into my trading. That is another thing I am going to have to work on to build confidence. Although I do have another pattern that I like to trade, but they only happen maybe once or twice a week, if not less than that. I think what I'm going to start doing, well, I've been doing it since last week, is trade live from 9am-12pm, then after I take a break, get something to eat, I'm going to come back and sim trade for the rest of the day. That way I get more chart time, get some trades in, take some trades and don't have to worry about the outcomes, and just see what happens. I also need to start just focusing on my charts. Sometimes the boredom of the trading day where no signals exist cause me to read or sit here at my computer watching videos on YouTube or do whatever else that will stimulate my mind. So anyways, I finished The Black Swan over the weekend. It's a pretty good book for anybody interested in that kind of thing, but the last couple chapters are kind of dry. I started reading a new book called "Your Money and Your Brain: How the New Science of Neuroeconomics Can Help Make You Rich" by Jason Zweig. Only 4 or 5 pages in so far and today's quote comes from this book: "...you will never maximize your wealth unless you can optimize your mind."
I was also waiting for a pullback to enter short, because the earlier price action was making shallow up and down moves and I expected that to possibly continue in a stair-stepping fashion. The reason I jumped in short @ 82.75 in the middle of a bar was that I was watching the 1-min chart and when price hit the 20 EMA on the 1-min chart (also the micro upper channel line) and started pulling back, I took the 82.75 short entry off the 1-min bar. In a way, this was simply a continuation of the down move off the initial short signal when the small triangle from the 10:10-10:25am bars broke downside in the 10:30am ET bar. Cross-referencing the 1-min chart is very helpful in pinpointing a decent entry point when an earlier signal is missed (in this case the triangle break or the later break of the range low).
No excuse today for not taking the one signal that jumped out and told me to trade it. Again, no trades, and I'm slightly mad at myself for not taking the trade. Trade A: This was a great signal. Pullback to the EMA and a bounce off. At the time all I could think about was, "I remember seeing this to the short side last week and it failed." Then I looked at the 1 min and the EMA was right above and yesterday's close was going right through this bar. Then I got up from my computer and walked away to go to the bathroom. All of the self-sabotaging problems that Douglas refers to. I just need to punch myself in the forehead. I have been trying to work on not just scalping the 11 ticks, but looking more at levels. This trade looked like I would have targeted around 20 ticks. I think it went to 19 and got hung up. At the time when I saw it I said that I would have probably gotten out when it stalled, which was at 82.70 so I would have gotten 16-17 ticks. However, since I failed to take it and I have nothing to show for it, I will only calculate +11 into my mTotal. Trade B: Similar setup, but not as nice looking without some form of a direction on the trade. It had a 2 tick failed low, which often means it's going the other way when it fails like that. It's hard to say if I should have taken this. I don't know. At the time I said, "oh there's another signal," but it didn't have the right feel to it and at the time I didn't recognize the 2 tick failure. If anything if I took it and managed it well, I probably would have only gotten +1. Total: 0 Monthly Total: -15.5 mTotal: +10.5 Monthly mTotal: +73.5 I need to stop distracting myself and just concentrate solely on the charts. Often sitting here I'm looking at things on the internet, doing other things, anything that takes me away from just sitting here watching the charts because it's often really boring to just sit here and watch the ticks. I'm not saying "I'm so bored I should probably find a different career path." I'm just saying it causes me to lose focus and then I start thinking about things and want to go look them up or I want to check other things and if I don't then it eats away at me. It's like trying to break a bad habit. You constantly want to do whatever that habit is so you have to concentrate all of your mental energy on not doing that habit, which then takes you away from refocusing that energy on what you would rather be doing. This causes me to miss out on some good trades that I might have seen or recognized if I was just watching the charts intently on looking for different setups that make sense to me. Also, I think some of my problem is that I do things for the purpose to avoid having to hold myself accountable to the losses. At the same time, that takes me away from putting myself in the position to be available for profits. I'm still in the mindset that I'm going to take these trades, but today was just a matter of trying to avoid the loss. My trading problems are all purely psychological at this point. Also, I'm not using it as an excuse, but I was really hungry today for some reason so I was too worried thinking about finding something to eat and my hunger was distracting me and I was tired from not having any energy. I didn't sleep very well last night so that probably had something to do with it. I was pretty busy yesterday so I didn't get much reading in so today's quote is from The Black Swan and I think it's something interesting to think about: "Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if that's what you are seeking."
FD, Try this: before you start your trading day, get some snacks, a bottle of water and lunch ready and by your desk. Have also some sort of jar. Then, if you have to go to the toilet you simply go, but if you're simply getting anxious, it's either the jar or your pants, but you stay at your post. Also, break down the day in intervals. Nobody (that I know of) can stare at charts for hours on end without losing his concentration. Program timeouts outside of critical hours (say, 10-15 minutes before the open, major news reports, the close, etc. toilet break, then be ready 5 minutes before the open). People are divided on this, but I've found it helps with your concentration to take a complete (i.e. both mental and physical/visual) 30' break from trading at lunch. That way you don't have to stay concentrated for the next 7 hours, but for the next 50-55 minutes. Then wash, rinse, repeat. PS: I tried punching myself in the face - it doesn't work
Good to hear that! You are a different trader now than you were when you started trading CL and had a choppy negative experience. You have a much better understanding of price action and what to look for in setups. You're a very different trader now with valuable knowledge. You now have the "right knowledge"; to get to "right thought" and "right action", you will inactivate the "all dogs are dangerous" belief. You're well aware that some dogs (CL trades) are really fun and very playful, and you have pepper spray (protective stop) for those dogs that turn out to be dangerous. It took 47 minutes, but it produced the promised profit in the end. Keep snacks nearby
Took 1 trade today. It was a matter of just taking trades now and not over thinking, which I kind of did over think, but I caught myself. I'll explain below. Trade A: This trade was a break of the low, which is not on the chart. The entry price short was 81.53. I had been looking at it earlier in the morning when trying to decide what would happen coming out of this tight range. I think I might have been away from my computer at the time when it broke, or I might have not been paying attention to my chart. I really didn't know if it was a valid trade so either way I probably would have just watched it. This was right on the news so that's probably a big reason why I stayed away waiting for price to settle in after everyone digested the news. Deep down I wish I traded it! Trade B: This looks like a trade that caught my eye at the time. After the steep drop it looked like it was bouncing, but it never really picked up any momentum to go higher. We had another red bar then the Trade B doji. It had a weak breakdown so probably move the stop quickly or get out as soon as you see it's not following through to the down side. As Crude Inventories were coming out I just stayed away. Trade C: This is another break of the low looking for a continuation of the downtrend. It would have been a nice trade to get in and find a way to get out. Trade 1: I took this trade, short. I was playing around with a downtrend line and it was going right through this bar, what I call an "overshoot." That was really my decision to take the trade since I was hesitating at the time that I saw it because of the fact that there was a strong move up to it. Also, with the extension of the previous bar I was thinking that it was everyone piling in at once creating some form of exhaustion on the current bar. Also, it seemed to be in line with the previous resistance. Price had closed above the EMA, but I thought that I could maybe get a pullback to the EMA at least. It was also just a matter of taking the "dang" trades. I got entered and it bounced so fast I didn't even have a chance to see green. It gave me a chance to get out going to -3, and it seemed to be hanging on the downtrend line, but it eventually went up and took me out at -10. Trade D: This was a signal I should have taken. I had a buy stop in, but then pulled it. I was sort of gun shy, but I wasn't really that affected by the previous trade. I just didn't want to do any revenge trading. This would have been good for 10 ticks, but if I was playing this one according to the way I started this journal I might have gotten out at +5, or maybe +1. This trade was basically, "Trade 1 was a short signal, it didn't go down, so now it's probably going up." It was a pullback shooting star/hammer continuation pattern. The move up was a little slow because of the way the pattern formed, but it would have worked. Total: -10.5 Monthly Total: -26 mTotal: +.5 Monthly mTotal: +74 So I took a loss today, but I have to condition myself to take those losses. It wasn't my first and it won't be my last. It's a step in the right direction because I didn't let it bother me. It was a little disappointing to have it go against me, but it's nothing personal. I can't continue to sit on the sidelines trying to avoid the losses. In review of the trade I question myself whether that was just profit taking? Were the traders who got in on the bottom now just taking profits at the resistance level? I don't know. If the trade would have worked out I wouldn't be asking myself these questions and so I try not to be results-oriented. I have to learn to take the losses, which will also help me manage trades and to get out of that tunnel vision mode where all you see is every reason why you're doing something wrong. Again, the analogy of driving a car. When you first start driving you focus so intently on the road ahead of you that you struggle to keep your eyes moving to your mirrors, road signs, upcoming cross streets, and oncoming cars. As you become a better driver it becomes second nature and you often don't realize that you're continuously scanning your surroundings. Overall, I'm still feeling confident. Taking this trade was the step in the right direction. At least I took a signal instead of trying to make up a setup where one didn't exist. In hindsight I wish I would have taken that first breakout and took the others. Tomorrow is another day! I'm reading "Your Money & Your Brain" by Jason Zweig, but it is very scientific. There really isn't too much jumping out at me. So this is from The Black Swan (again): "We are quick to forget that just being alive is an extraordinary piece of good luck, a remote event, a chance occurrence of monstrous proportions."
Took 1 trade today. It wasn't a trade I normally take, but it was more or less an attempt at just getting rid of the hesitation and fear and go for it. You'll notice my chart looks slightly different. I was PM'd some advice on this trend indicator. Blue is an uptrend, red is a downtrend and take signals in the direction of that trend. I don't know how the lines are calculated, but I have noticed that if the bars close through one of the lines, it'll flip the trend indicator. If anyone knows how those lines are calculated as far as where they are plotted, please let me know. I can't seem to find the strategy wizard on NinjaTrader to see if I can get into the code. I went back and did a quick test on previous days and it would have kept me out of yesterday's loss, but it also would have kept me out of taking some trades that actually looked pretty good, counter trend. Trade A: This was a rangy mess, but a rejection of the EMA, failed breakout of the range, and a short(ish) signal at the top of the range. The problem was the fact that the bottoms of the preceding bars were all up trending so there was a lot of buying pressure. If this range would have been back and forth, solid bull and bear bars, with opens and closes near each other then it would have been a better trade. Trade 1: This one might be hard to find on the chart, but it's in the middle of a bear bar. It was a short off the break of the previous pivot low. It was coming in hard so I entered at 1 tick below the low. I also had yesterday's close right below there. I got entered in and it went right down to the horizontal line and came back. It was very fast that it kind of shook me out of the trade, in a way. I moved my stop quickly to +1 and got taken out of the trade. It only would have went against me 4 ticks before going much, much lower. The fact that it was reacting so quickly I was afraid of it hitting that line and then snapping back up in a failed breakout. I don't normally take these trades so it was a new experience. I know it is valid in the bigger trend, but usually my trades come before it breaks those lows and then I would look for a break of the lows, already in the trade, already in profits and don't have to worry about the failed/weak breakout having it snap back against me. I didn't see a way to get in before hand, but looking back on it now I could have probably shorted that internal double bottom looking for it to test and break the pivot low. Trade B: Very big bar, weak on a continued push to new lows. It sort of had the feel of a failed breakout with a lot of buying pressure coming in. It would have been a ballsy long, but you could have scalped it for at least a breakeven trade. Trade C: I took the reasoning on this that we possibly had a big suspected reversal to go long, but then the C bar failed to continue long so we're going short. The problem was the fact of the buying pressure in the previous 3 bars just had the feel that the bears were getting tired. Trade D: The previous bar was butting it's head on the EMA and was a 1 tick high before coming back down and then eventually closing as a pure doji. Then the D bar comes down and does a 2 tick low, sucking in the shorts, and then goes higher as a bear trap. That is a new type of trade for me so I'm going to have to work on recognizing those. I really liked it after the fact. Total: +.5 Monthly Total: -25.5 mTotal: 0 Monthly mTotal: +74 So it seems like this trend "indicator" wasn't a distraction. I have to use it more to really say if it was helpful, but it definitely didn't get in the way of any conflicting signals. I'm pretty hesitant on adding new things in the middle of already trying to learn one thing. I am confident in being able to trade the way that I do that I don't believe in the whole idea of adding more to try and make my analysis better. My problems are psychological, not analytical. I don't like to have a bunch of lines and indicators on my charts because there is too much indecision and conflicting signals and I don't want to deal with it. I'm confident with what I'm doing now and actually enjoy the simplicity of my charts. Anyways, I'm happy with my one trade today. Even though I could have had a lot more if I held on, I still took the trade and felt the swings of emotions so it's one step closer to overcoming those emotions. Yesterday towards the close I took a sim trade on that last strong move up and took +30 ticks. Although it was just sim and the emotions weren't fully involved with deciding whether it was a trade or not, it gave me the feelings of success and it really just strengthened the idea of how I should feel, no emotions, no worries, not over thinking. Another thing it did was helped me to refocus. It was a relief. I realized today that I was much more focused on the charts and it felt good to just sit here and watch. I forced myself to stay away from the internet because I actually wanted to find trades. I think I did well today, except that I shouldn't have taken off my trade too soon. I said yesterday that today I was going to make a profit, and a half a tick is a profit! I'm looking forward to tomorrow! "Understand who is trustworthy, figure out how to collaborate with them, learn how to outsmart those who are not. Those are the kinds of tasks our brains evolved to perform." - Jason Zweig