First time in the Flow…

Balancing for months on the edge of profitability, I experienced something strange for the last two weeks.
I had many successful trades that didn't seem to cost me much stress or uncertainty.

Instead of enjoying the process, I went paper trading after three days, fearing that this couldn't last very long.
But my careless "demo-mode" made things only "worse"; the winning streak stayed.

Now, I feel excitement and uncertainty for the coming week …;

1. There is no "flow"; I was extremely lucky; my mediocre performance will soon return.
2. It finally snapped and it should continue until I change, due to pressure, greed or fear.

I only trade EUR/USD based on price action and do around 5 - 10 trades a day.

Who experienced something similar and what's your advice?

Thanks.

 

The state of the market is constantly changing, which is why adaptation to direction, lack of direction, low medium or high volatility is key to it all.

Perhaps you excel at trading during specific market periods.

Research and determine.

 

yeah, I've been through the same thing

I about got laughed off the board when I asked, "Is it wise to reduce size after extreme profitability?"

also, is it wise to increase size after a seemingly improbable string of bad luck

one thing I know for sure, the worst thing is to switch strategies in the depths of drawdown. And many do. They start out with the idea of what their max drawdown should be, and if the strategy gets off to bad start they ride it down and give up, then switch to a new strategy, only now with a reduced account size.

they say, sometimes when you are wrong, not only are you wrong, but you are exactly wrong

I've been through streaks where I couldn't hit the broadside of barn, and streaks where I couldn't miss

sometimes it helps just to flip a coin and see how many heads or tails you can flip in a row. With a 50% hit rate that is probably how your trading is going to go.

probably best just to stay steady.

Hard enough trying to guess what the market is going to do, without on top of that, also trying to guess how lucky or unlucky you are going to be.

 

the real crux of the matter is, over time, is the strategy profitable? and I would have to say, in almost every case, the answer is "No"

otherwise some trader would rule the world

some things stay the same, they were the same back then, and will be the same in the future

other things are constantly changing

and you need both of them to consistently make money

otherwise, you posted on the right forum, since the question seems to be, "Do I deserve to make money?"

 

Onra,

Seems you've had a glimpse of what I've been talking about for the last however many years

Many get hung up on self… and stuck in a loop of how do I get my emotions / head right


You got past the self stuff… and FOCUSED on simply trading…

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The way you get it back – is to continue to let go

(because know this.., the harder you try to grasp on to it – the more it’ll elude you – the worrying / fretting returns – and your focus soon diverts back to you)

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Think back when you were a kid… ever read a story/ or watch a movie – lose yourself – and become part of the story – as the story was unfolding

Same with trading – let go – become part of the story – and as price unfolds – go with it

Scary.., yet neat – isn't it (no need to answer)

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Yes there is greed… and fear… and uncertainty… and every other emotion imaginable – for all of us…

Accept them all and move on… (realize this shit only exists in each of us… and will hold our focus till we let it go)


The flow is nothing more than diverting our total focus – to actual trading

Screw ourselves… our emotions… our PnL… each trade’s outcome…. and everything else that is not actual trading



Helps if you’re a little adhd – as the ability to be hyper focused seems to come naturally…

If you’re not – then I suggest you segment the trading day – and alternate between total focusing / then total relaxing… total focusing / then total relaxing… and build up to where you can remain solely trading focused throughout an entire day/ session


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Aside;

Here’s another little phenomena that’ll occur;

Once you can routinely stick to the trading – you’ll start seeing the fear…, greed.., and stupid ass emotions/ actions of others – along with the actions of big money – as the story plays out on the chart before you…

It’ll seem strange – how it’s been there all along – yet somehow eluded you

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Bottom line – that state you experienced – is real… more importantly – it is repeatable

And the way trading should be

RN

 

Thanks Daring,

It was trending in those weeks, so you may be right there...
I have to wait for more uncertainty in direction and low volatility.
If I survive that, well...

 

Thanks Oldtime,

The same thing crossed my mind.
I've read in Market Wizards that the big guys really push when they're in a winning streak, but also that their worst drawdowns would occur after they thought the golden touch would last forever...
I stopped at two times my normal weekly profit, but I could have carried on.

So, how long can a winning or losing streak last?

 

Thank you, Sir!
Your words have been a great inspiration over the last years.
Maybe it's finally paying off

I get your point, only I think that I'm not ready for it.
I just can't believe that I will ever achieve this level.

I trade on and off, due to my burnout.
I have to be very careful and disciplined not to trade and focus for more than 1 - 2 hours, because it ruins the rest of the day and the day after that. ..

It scares me to get started in the morning, without a clue or an edge and just watch...
When I finally start to see patterns; pushing and pulling, I get more relaxed and just dive into the water, which always seem shallow.

There is indeed no point in trying harder.
Let's see if I can float again with the tide tomorrow, but if the current feels wrong I get out!

 

---Who experienced something similar and what's your advice?--


yes. all the time. if this is something unusual and wasn't in your backtesting results(assuming you have them)-then i would simply try to reduce the size. without switching to paper account.

 

as long as the market is readable ?