Currently, the First quarter of FY2004 is expecting to be aproximately $14.68 per share, versus $12.49 a year ago quarter. This translates into a 17.5% gain year over year. Current Standard & Poors forecast for Q1 2004 is 14.04, so there should be a dearth of earnings surprises in Q1, further fueling the recovery scenario. This represents a 5% increase in the surprise factor. On a 4 quarter trailing basis, the first quarter is expected to be $56.35 versus $47.66 per share during the first quarter of 2003, or an 18.2% growth. . . Oil prices still remain in the upper quadrant of the inflation adjusted historical range, however, above $36 / bbl are new inflation adjusted highs, with which we have not dealt with in a long, long time. . . and i suspect that we won't panic until the price stays above $40 per barrel, which right now is the psychological panic point. . . imho sportsguy ps, the dollar variable did not play into the forecast statistically, weak or strong. . . because of the balancing between the increased consolidated earnings versus the increased COGS for imported goods and parts for assembly.
which will be reported in 2004 Q2. . . 2003 Q4 earnings are expected to be $14.51 for the quarter, up from $11.92 in the final quarter of 2002, or a 21.7% increase in earnings. This estimate beats the current $9.50 estimate that S&P has on their web site. . . for the fullyear, the S&P 500 is forecasted to end at $54.10 per share, up from $45.88 or up 18 percent year over year. . . the way that my forecast is set up is that the actual earnings for the quarter are posted exactly 1/2 way through the quarter, so that the 2003 Q4 earnings are set at November 14th. This date coincides with the majority of the SP500 earnings releases for the prior quarter and any earnings warnings or confirmations, such that the market movements reflect the most current information releases versus the investor / trading decision making process. . . might not be the best, but matching earnings releases to actuals, week by week is not an exact science. . . sportsguy
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