First negative signs in Wheat

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Cutten, Sep 28, 2007.

  1. Cutten


    Wheat is up a bit today, but the related markets of Soybeans and Corn especially are weak. This weakness in correlated markets is often a sign that a strong trend is getting closer to an end - think of the Dow falling while the nasdaq rose in the last stages of the bubble in early 2000.

    This move may also result in short wheat/long corn spreaders giving up the ghost after big taking losses in recent months. Once they get squeezed out, I would be thinking of taking the other side of that position. Although based on recent action, this trades pretty much like an outright wheat short.

    As a result, I think it would be wise to reduce size on any wheat longs on a move up to the high 900s - say 970-980 is probably a decent place to get out and I'll be selling half my longs there, assuming it keeps going up. I wouldn't get short outright there but IMO it's a good point to reduce risk and bank some coin.