First, Mr. doug kass and now its jim cramer saying stocks have seen lows for the year

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by S2007S, Jul 13, 2010.

  1. S2007S


    I can feel the hype and out of control bulls, so this week brings out cramer and his call that the lows for the year have come and gone in a matter of days and that its only upside from here with a minimal pullback here and there. Funny how you never here people scream that equities have hit the high for the year. This is the same mentality that we hear over and over and over again. I'm sure all these great market hypsters thought when dow 12k came then 13k and then 14k came that 10,000 would be gone forever, well the idiot bulls were wrong. The idiot bulls will be wrong again, dow 10,000 will cross again and the markets will come back down to lows for 2010, don't fall for the extreme optimism that these fools continue to talk about.

    Lows for 2010: (so far!)

    9596 for the dow
    1010 for the spx

    Cramer: 'We’ve Seen the Lows for the Year'
    Published: Monday, 12 Jul 2010 | 7:07 PM ET
    Text Size
    By: Tom Brennan
    Web Editor, Mad Money

    Five out of the six things that absolutely had to happen before this market could sustain a rally have happened, Cramer told viewers on Monday. While the list isn’t yet complete, he thinks “it’s time to get more bullish.”

    Back on June 2, Cramer said that stocks wouldn’t run unimpeded unless the following key events occurred: Financial reform was finalized, Spanish banks stabilized, unemployment declined, BP’s [BP 36.88 0.12 (+0.33%) ] plugged its leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico, China pulled off a soft landing for its overheated economy, and the euro stopped falling. Well, all but the unemployment problem are either solved or very close to being so.

    President Obama may not have signed the financial-reform bill, but we’ve seen the fine print. Now we know that fears the legislation would cripple American banks’ capacity to make money were overblown, and that means those banks can rally. Check.

    Spanish mega-bank Banco Santander [STD 12.80 0.25 (+1.99%) ] has jumped about 50% since June 2, thanks to some smart diversification away from its home country and to the UK, US and Latin America. The results of the European bank stress tests won’t be out for another two weeks, but Cramer is confident enough in STD’s turnaround that he’s willing to check this one off the list.

    BP is close to putting a cap on its leaking well, and a relief well isn’t that far off. Admittedly, the company hasn’t had the best track record so far, but even Boone Pickens told Cramer that he thinks the relief well will work. That gives Cramer enough confidence to check this box off the list as well.

    As for China, that problem has already been solved. The country has in fact engineered a successful soft landing, which is why Cramer stopped worrying about this point weeks ago. Now, he said, he’s feeling even more bullish on about the country’s moderating but still positive growth.

    The euro, meanwhile, has done exactly what Cramer called for: It bottomed at 118 versus the dollar when France and Germany agreed to stop the naked short-selling of all European financial instruments. And it has since rebounded to 125. Check.

    The lone holdout is unemployment, but Cramer sees some positive signs here. He thinks the strength in autos, retail and exports will create jobs, especially because the Obama administration seems less intent on hurting American businesses. Plus, the brokers are hiring, particularly the Japanese and European firms, and that usually precedes an expansion on Main Street, Cramer said. And don’t forget about the better unemployment claims we saw last week. We’re on the right track, for sure, but not so much that this box deserves a check, though.

    With five out of the six worries now out of the way, Cramer said, “last week’s 5% rally was totally and absolutely justified.” And that means the hyper-negativity that has permeated this market “is no longer in synch with the facts.” So while we can’t yet be totally confident in the market until all six boxes are checked, we can get more bullish and believe in the market’s ability to rally.

    “I think we’ve seen the lows for the year,” Cramer said, “and I am a buyer, particularly if we get any pullback of 3% to 5%.”
  2. Can't disagree w/a word he said. Financial reform means business as usual on Wall Street. The oil leak is over. Europe has papered over its problems for at least another year or two ... the stress tests are bs, but will come out just fine (of course a couple of politically out-of-favor banks will be thrown to the wolves to show everyone how tough the tests were). I'm not so sure about China, but I can't necessarily argue with him.

    When all of these experts started calling for Euro parity, and stocks continued to fall, yet the Euro rose from 118 to the low 1120s, it should have been a huge yellow flag for the bears. Now the Euro is over 127 and equities are up 5-8% in a manner of days. This is not summer of 2008. No important central banks are tightening. There is no Fannie, Freddie, or Lehman explosion waiting in the wings. Doesn't mean we're going to Dow 12000, but an excellent argument could be and has been made that the Euro/China/Double-dip induced bear move is over.