First Month Trading

padutrader · Jun 4, 2018

SteveH said:
Starspa, before you get too caught up in price action, there's an easy thing to observe. In strong intraday trends, you'll tend to get only 1-3 consecutive opposite closes in a row before the trend takes off again, so the importance is in getting IN, not the "where" precision.

To prove the point to yourself, go find strong trends historically, take an imaginary trade at the close of a each red bar in an uptrend (vice verse for a downtrend) and measure the MAE and MFE for each trade. The reward to risk ratio will be greater than 1:1 no matter which one you took, except maybe on the last leg. [by "strong trend" on intraday, I mean favoring a 9 or 20 period moving avg...personally, I like the 9 wma and 20 ema].

So your skill level to improve is getting the context right (up/down/sideways), not in the anal-ity of the entry. Because look at all of those awesome reward to risk ratios you just measured. Be 50% right in guessing up/down by the first leg of a new trend and you will get all you want from trading.

If you get 4 consecutive candles against the trend and the 20 ema gets closed through, that's a good clue that sideways or reversing is going on. Again, go back and handcheck as many strong trends intraday that you care to...the really good ones don't have that tendency.

I'll add another trend watcher thingy:

Clayburg is correct (lookup Clayburg lines). If price during the first hour of regular trading hours (RTH) favors one side or the other of the first 5 min midpoint, the odds are high that price will finish above / below that favoring (line) for the day. I'll add my own twist. Don't let price leave the first 60 min high/low without you on board!
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some really good actionable stuff....rare on ET.....and yes [trend] trading can be simple if you focus on the right things

padutrader · Jun 4, 2018

Xela said:
No, sorry ... no idea. (I wouldn't be shocked if he'd been "removed", though - I think he was quite often complained about, one way and another. But I have no real evidence for this suggestion at all.)
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that is a bit like Stalin time -disappearing people
i think banning should be transparent and at least put on record that such a member was banned

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First Month Trading

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