Hey Bobby, glad to see you posting. Loved your journal. Anyway I wanted to ask, currently where do you reside in your journey as far as strategies go? Meaning since condors aren't your bread-and-butter, what is? I'm inclined to trade many butterflies these days. They've become my favorite strategy, the whole myriad of them (broken-wing, skip-strike, iron fly, double fly, long fly, short fly etc..) Wing spreads are great in general but I like positioning weekly long fly's in many products.
You have a faulty premise. No strategy has an 'inherent' advantage over any other. Same holds true for buying and selling. Anyone teaching you otherwise is selling you a false bill of goods. Some positions just allow you to sleep better. Sleep is good.
Well I agree and disagree at the same time ... Yes no strategy is perfect or a winner all the time ... However there could be some that just make more sense to you and you find easier to trade than others because you have a system for it and practiced it quite a bit. That's all I meant by that .... Not that ICs win rate would be any better than another. It all comes down to the person ... I believe
While I concur, let me play that advocative devil.. YES, no "inherent" advantage.. but... Depending on your molecular structure and brain wits... One can create a synthetic advantage. Where... for ex: Dude is a trading wizard. He loves fading jaded lizards... But hates and waits to get paid in silver. He uses advanced GARCH models he got from his step dad who was/is also a wizard. Calculate the dispersion, and wallah, you are trading weekly iron-flies within implied--spaces. So yes theres no inherent numerical life-less f(x)=NUMB function BUT add some human witty intellect and watch him go!
There are half-a-dozen fairly good graphics with basic outlines of option strategies for given market set-ups. We pick our bread&butter from something else. For me, it's losses. Show me some strategies with $1 positive expectancy, and I'll *probably* choose the one with the smallest number of losses -- not the $2 winners, but the 25¢25¢25¢25¢25¢25¢25¢25¢. I favor systematic operation; I favor base-hits over homeruns. That addresses your original query.
Hello Sigma! My bread and butter trade is selling the 10 delta put in /ES at 60 DTE. I manage the put at 40% profit or close it at 21 DTE, regardless of profit or loss. So far this year, the average hold time on the trade is 7 days. Best wishes on your journey.
Hey Sigma,pretty sure you know that an IC is basically a bunch of butterflys stacked together.. may I ask which broker you trade with?? I am trading with IB and it seems like I wind up paying about 6 bucks for 4 legged spreads(1.50 per contract).. TOS would charge me 2.60 for the same spreads... Any input appreciated
Hey Tao, yes I am aware of the relationship between condors and flys, I love me some wing-spreads! I trade with tastyworks and TOS!