Finding a Consistent Way to Pick Winning Stocks

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Apr 22, 2019.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    According to Ross Givens, one of the most profitable ways to trade stocks is to follow insider trades by copying the purchases of a small handful of CEOs, CFOs, board members and the like who suddenly start buying tons and tons of their own companies’ stocks due to their private knowledge of yet to be announced sales growth, upcoming product or service launches, major new customers, new executive hires, recent legal resolutions, imminent FDA drug approvals, new legislation/federal permits, and/or approaching mergers/acquisitions.

    The secret to these insiders’ investing success is simple—they know of phenomenal things about to develop that virtually no one else is aware of—a clear advantage they have over everyday investors that they use to get filthy rich.

    Look at the data and you find that their track records are perfect. They buy the lows in the form of large blocks of stock just before major moves to the upside and then sell the highs six months or more down the line, making money 100% of the time. These elite insiders never experience a losing trade!

    Such sudden monster purchases by some corporate insider somewhere occur on average three to four times a month, so if you have the time to go through every filing of Securities and Exchange Form 4 listed each day to discover the major purchases which cannot be attributed to stock options, routine purchases or actively traded funds, you have yourself a means of making some rather amazing wealth generating stock purchases with the potential to propel you into a whole other tax bracket within a single year.
     
    #11     Apr 23, 2019
  2. userque

    userque

    FYI, @JSOP 's post refers to illegal insider trading.
     
    #12     Apr 24, 2019
  3. tomorton

    tomorton

    I have a feeling we all try too hard with stuff like this. An adequate filter for rising stocks would be buy at the close of each week if both the stock and its index are up over the last three weeks.

    The real skill comes in knowing when to hold, when to close, when to add.
     
    #13     Apr 24, 2019
  4. JSOP

    JSOP

    His success rate is only 50% with each pick and overall his return is -2.3% according to tipranks: https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/ross-givens

    So with each of his trade tips you only have 50% chance of making it. So I dunno. For the people who have actually attended his seminars, they are not impressed.
     
    #14     Apr 24, 2019
  5. ph1l

    ph1l

    tipranks has a small and not recent sample size for Ross Givens, so it might be hard to draw conclusions:
    upload_2019-4-24_14-43-55.png upload_2019-4-24_14-44-13.png
     
    #15     Apr 24, 2019
  6. expiated

    expiated

    Yeah, I just saw that myself. You would expect better from someone who guarantees $100,000 over the next 12 months if you sign up for his Market Traders Daily, unless the 50% that are right generate monster gains. But a -2.3% average return would suggest not.
     
    #16     Apr 24, 2019
  7. JSOP

    JSOP

    #17     Apr 24, 2019
  8. expiated

    expiated

    I seem to recall seeing a video in which Givens said that the associated shares typically explode on average about six months after the insiders make their purchases, and that it is not uncommon for the best of them to generate a return on investment of 100% or more within six months after that. So if I'm remembering correctly, a year should be long enough.
     
    #18     Apr 24, 2019
  9. sss12

    sss12

    Actually, you have it backwards. Inside buying of shares is regulated and on a regular schedule pre announced and not at the descretion of the insider.

    What can be telling is insider SELLING which is not automated/scheduled.

    Ie: if an insider regularly sold shares on a quarterly basis, as many due to pay taxes, college, big living expenses, and then suddenly stop selling....what may that indicate ?
     
    #19     Apr 24, 2019
  10. expiated

    expiated

    On a day in which all three of the major U.S. indices were in the red, BITA managed to close above water and FIZZ was actually up 2.23%. CHAP ended its monster gains today, but NCI was up another 1.60%.

    With respect to Screen #44, the first group, the one with a positive percent day change and big volume yesterday, was a mixed bag, with one stock (EBR) having dropped even more than -5%. Only one stock from the second group fell (GOL), but it too did so by almost -5%. Of the three in the third group (the stocks that had a negative percent day change yesterday), only one of them had a negative percent day change today (SQ), but not by much, and in fact, PYX was up a whopping 11.17%. So I will be evaluating whether a negative percent day change is actually a good omen for the next day's performance.

    TODAY'S PICKS:
    Screen #1 - QNST
    Screen #44 / Negative % Day Change - DATA
    Screen #44 / Big Volume - SITC, JILL
    Screen #44 / Positive % Day Change - WELL, NNN, IRT, LLY, MPW, A, THC, LXP, DOC, WCG, AIV
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2019
    #20     Apr 25, 2019