Discussion in 'Trading' started by JamesVU2000, Oct 18, 2007.
How long is the tug of war going to last?
Obviously tech is outperforming
Last post. Tech has been creaming financials.
But can tech really run that far without the semi's?
Top 10 nas 100 holdings account for about 50% of the index weight:
APPL, MSFT, GOOG, QCOM, CSCO, RIMM,
INTC, ORCL, EBAY, GILD, CMSCA.
With appl a disproportionate 11% weight.
So far rimm gapped up on perceived good earnings. EBAY popped on good news, but unwinded (I believe due to 35 OE in 2 days) and should continue up after OE IMO. INTC perceived good news. As I mentioned in liquidity thread, Qs have been underdogs for years, and if energy finally pulls back after years of leading, I don't think financials will take up the slack. I think tech will make its comeback and maybe some materials.
If tech makes a comeback, as I suspect under the above scenario, semis will join. Look at how they are already treating the leader,intel's earnings. That should be a clue.
BTW, if you look at financials vs. tech during the last leg of the run up late 99 to mid 2000, you'd see financials were trending down even as nasdaq made it's final ascent. Meaning correlation wise, even if financials should pull back hard for another 6 months, it doesn't mean nasdaq has to suffer, although the pain would be felt more on s&p500.
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