Impressive indeed. Tell me, Wallace, are you familiar with the legal term, "constructing evidence after the fact?"
LOL. Did you actually trade that or are you saying you "could have" or "would have" traded the way you stated in your extensive narrative?
That may well be, but don't beat yourself up about it. There are those who believe that size doesn't matter. I imagine that you just have to be patient and look for them.
Talking about Joe DiNapoli. anybody read his book "Trading with DiNapoli levels" ? Can you use his techniques be 100 % mechanized ? Anybody took his course ?
Hello AAAintheBeltway, thanks, maybe. Thunderdog, mustn't think others would stoop to your levels. Quah, the question isn't about my trades, but in answering your original question, will applying some/all/any of the information I provided assist you with your trading. Maxpi, each to his own, glad that like me you don't get headaches trading. When I first began trading the S/P, I hand charted the price movement with point and figure and knew nothing about indicators etc, etc. The first significant price movement analysis technique I discovered was the Elliott Wave theory, which as you may know, is completely concerned with price movement prediction. Since that time, some 20+ years ago and with the introduction of computers, sophisticated charting software and the Internet, I've found the trading tools that work for me â a predictive price movement trader. The opportunities provided by online fx trading seem to me to be better than other markets: margin for 1 mini lot (contract) is US$50, margin accounts for as little as US$2/300, the EUR/USD Daily trading range greater than 50 pips (points) and often doing 100/100+ pips. Some traders minute scalp a currency pair not withstanding the 3-5 point Buy/Sell dealer spread, others trade Intraday and/or day-to-days. Trading fx currency pairs is similar to, especially the EUR/USD, trading the S/P, and all trading systems, methods and techniques, technical and fundamental appear to work in the fx markets. I've included a chart from one of the 'best' EW predictive charting programs, Advanced Get, available now from eSignal (and see: ttp://www.esignalcentral.com/university/get/default.asp) which illustrates in addition to an EW count, the 2 main price/time prediction tools, the Ellipse and MOB. I don't trade off/with AG but do find it a very useful 2nd opinion to my own analyses. This concludes my participation in this thread. Thankyou for your questions, comments and responses to my posts â especially to my ribbings. Regards to All. Wallace.
Fibonacci has never claimed that ! It is the traders that claimed that for him . I remind what originally Fibonacci serie was about and that golden ratio is absolutly NOT UNIVERSAL (for example one can found the so called Lucas ratio in plants along with Fibo ratios) it must be demonstrated and Fibonacci has demonstrated in the PARTICULAR CASE of reproduction of RABITTS with some CONDITIONAL HYPOTHESIS see below a former post I made : http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=250373&highlight=Rabbits#post250373 "Fibonacci was studying the reproduction of rabbits and he made the hypothesis that each generation was producing 1 couple and only one couple at each generation. In that case the ratio of two consecutive terms will be the solution of the equation x = x^2 +1 which would give 1.618. But nature is not so simplist and if he had supposed 3 couples distributed on 3 generations the new magic number would be the solution of the equation x^3 = x^2 + x + 1 and would give a ratio of 1.839. So the golden mean has no acquired universality at least on macroscopic scale where the initial conditions can be broadly numerous and that what makes richness of life possible ! It could be that on atomic scale golden ratio play a role as other universal constants but on macroscopic scale it has to be demonstrated case by case !"
So the demonstration if Market follows or not some Golden ratio cannot be simplistically justified by reference to the name of Fibonacci ! It can only be proved if one doesn't make an ADHOC hypothesis that the market follow Fibonacci ratios. Fibonacci DIDN'T POSTULATE Golden ratio in his HYPOTHESIS. His Hypothesis was "that each generation was producing 1 couple and only one couple at each generation." Where do you see Golden Ratio in his hypothesis ? None. From that hypothesis, he deduced that "In that case the ratio of two consecutive terms will be the solution of the equation x = x^2 +1 " Solving this equation leads to the Golden Ratio IN THAT PARTICULAR CASE not in UNIVERSAL CASE since "if he had supposed 3 couples distributed on 3 generations the new magic number would be the solution of the equation x^3 = x^2 + x + 1 and would give a ratio of 1.839". So if one wants to demonstrate that market does follow Fibonacci ratios he cannot put the Golden Ratio as ADHOC HYPOTHESIS since it is a circular reference to itself and then there is no demonstration and only invoking the name of Fibonacci is absolutly funny to substitute to the necessary demonstration ! P.S.: Now I can make such demonstration with my equations since as in the Rabitts case I don't have ADHOC hypothesis of any Golden Ratio. Nevertheless in practical trading I prefer not to use them because they are just convergence of the underlying law which is not as precise as the individual numbers directly obtained from the equations and that are fundamental and so less questionable as for their interpretation than their convergence. Convergence is like playing average, and you know that if you can avoid averaging in trading it's better because it is more precise - that's why I prefer to use directly the individual numbers. Apart from using a fundamental equations like mine, it is possible to "demonstrate" it statistically but the protocol must be chosen adequatly to eliminate subjectivity.