Finally, Fibonacci in Perspective

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Thunderdog, Nov 12, 2003.

  1. mojo59


    Hi Thunderdog,

    My point was not that innerworth supports fundamental analysis. I was using a metaphor that their criticism reminded me of investors who trade on the fundamentals making fun of technical analysis. My point with Dinapoli's engineering and economics background was that he was not a new age weirdo using astrology to divine the markets. As far as a crutch, I think that could be said about all indicators such as the use of moving averages, stochastics, macd, etc. At least with fib numbers you are trading off of present support and resistance and not indicators derived from past price action. I'm sorry if I wasn't clear. PM me if you have any questions. Glad to discuss all of this.
    #11     Nov 12, 2003

  2. HUH?
    what do you mean that fib numbers give you the edge of trading off of present support and resistance?
    are you referring to intraday price charts or weekly or monthly?
    is not a support or resistance a past price action?
    TA by definition of mathmatical function derrives value from past movement in an attempt to contemplate future price direction.

    I dissagree.
    #12     Nov 12, 2003
  3. mojo59


    A leading indicator is one that indicates, before the market gets there, where support or resistance is likely to manifest. A lagging indicator is one that requires market action before the indicator turns. It confirms support or resistance rather than predicts it. In short, it lags market action.
    #13     Nov 12, 2003

  4. Hi mojo,

    I understand your point. I guess we'll just have to be modern about it and agree to disagree. :)

    The idea of using predefined Fibonacci numbers as a "leading" indicator of support and resistance is not in keeping with my view of the world. It suggests determinism or predestination. This, in turn, suggests an absence or constriction of free will on the part of the participants. I just do not think that human nature can be predicted or forced with preordained ratios. I realize that I am addressing the concept in broad strokes and that we can put a finer point on it. However, I believe our views will remain divergent.

    I will give you this, though: if you find that it (somehow) works for you, then you get to have the last laugh, and the heck with what I think!


    #14     Nov 12, 2003
  5. Mojo59, I am offended as are all astro financial analysts by your statement:

    ". . . new age weirdo using astrology to divine the markets."

    Your bigoted remark displays your ignorance not your knowledge Mojo59, to which I render:

    "There are more things in heaven and earth , Horatio [Mojo59],
    Than are dreamt of in your philosophy [technical analysis]."
    - Hamlet Prince of Denmark (Hamlet at I, v)

    and as for your 'flat Earth' philosophy Thunderdog - take this chart and . . .

    Regards to All. Wallace.
    #15     Nov 13, 2003

  6. Ah, there is nothing quite like the friendly exchange of ideas, eh? Wally, note how similar mystic and mistake sound.

    Interesting chart. What are those? Grid lines? There certainly are enough of them. You know what they say: throw enough of it at the wall and some of it is bound to stick.

    As an aside, I would think that you, Wally, are the "flat Earth" guy. Was it not in that era that mysticism abounded and people were preoccupied with fate and destiny and determinism? You know, when the future was known in advance based on the alignment of pebbles or stars or whatever?
    #16     Nov 13, 2003
  7. Why do you call me "Wally" Thunderdog, my name is Wallace.

    "... when the future [price] was known in advance based on [fibo projections, 3 hrs in advance of the price's arrival] ..."

    Regards to All. Wallace.
    #17     Nov 13, 2003
  8. Quah


    Wallace - how did you trade that chart?
    #18     Nov 13, 2003
  9. dbphoenix


    Probably because you're behaving like a Wally.
    #19     Nov 13, 2003
  10. Hello Quah, the foundation for my price movement analysis is Elliott Wave, fibos and MetaStock's 'Standard Error Channel' tool.

    Last Thursday's US jobs data release resulted in the L indicated by the 1st vertical yellow line on the 6th. After the release the price went sideways for about 19 hours until the Friday US economic data release when price declined again, 2nd yellow bar.
    I viewed the price formation between the yellow bars as a Head and Shoulders base, AB in Elliott, and not having penetrated the beginning of the gap, the lowest red line, confirmed for me the price had bottomed and would rise, a Buy.

    The chart is too large a timeframe to see the 1st Wave that formed on which an initial fibo could be drawn to project the subsequent rise to the 1.15s area. Together with a bar count using Lucas series numbers, 4 7 11 18 etc, the top, initial decline in price and formation indicated a possible forthcoming Correction, Close Buy. The white fibo was drawn on the wave and the price made a 'perfect' ABC Correction to the .618 level, a Sell, Buy, Sell followed the Correction.

    Also assisting to confirm the Ls of the 6/7th is the down channel. The channel is able to be repositioned from the fulcrum of its initial start point, and was repositioned to confirm the top and subsequent Correction of the Impulse Wave. The second channel was drawn on the Impulse Wave, red bar indicates where it was drawn to and extended from.

    With the L of the C in place and price rising, the white fibo was switched from 'down' to 'up' and repositioned to the L of the Correction, the start of the next wave up, the blue fibo. A Buy is entered, 15 min chart is used for trading.

    From the LL the price has climbed through the '1st' gap until reaching the 1.1650 area where another gap begins. Will the price stop here ? As can be seen, the price stalled then after the release of today's US economic data, took off again and may be on its way to the 1.20s.

    Now you know my trading system Quah, will you be paying me my US$25,000 fee with cash or credit card ? Wallace.
    #20     Nov 13, 2003