Final paper trade testing of Woodies CCI club

Discussion in 'Journals' started by mrbluelegs, Dec 27, 2007.

  1. That YouTube vid is good for general market commentary it is too much of the discretionary style that wont work for me at this time.
    I do appreciate the concept of a large range 5 min bar move and the price action after giving a heads up as to weather a continuation will occur. Those high and tight continuation patterns are not common enough to make a living on.

    things on my to do list

    I now have a trade entry check list check list to prevent any more errors like my stop out on a rougr ZLR trade that should never have happened the side winder and the CZI were signaling no trade..
     
    #31     Dec 29, 2007
  2. My main goal in this is to find one of the indexes to be best with the CCI system. Strict record keeping on all trades all trade entry with a separate equity curve in each index with a cumulative equity curve for each index encompassing all trades taken in that Index. Which ever index is the best and profitable on paper is what i will trade real money with. So it is between the YM the Russel and the NASDQ. I will trade the one index with real money until I am expert and can do it in my sleep while I continue to simulate the other two then I will pick the best out of the remaining two to trade live. that is as far as i have gotten with my plan to move from competency to excellence.
     
    #32     Dec 29, 2007
  3. limit

    limit

  4. #34     Dec 29, 2007
  5. First i would like to thank you for replying to my efforts to test the Woodies CCI system. Second i would like to address the limitations and folly of representing opinions as fact in this forum.
    My aim is to fully test the CCI system for one month on live data and market order entry on 3 stock market indexes;YM, ER, NQ. I will post images of every trade, my comments, and the simulated P/L.

    The truth is that %90 of people will lose money even when given a winning strategy to trade. The CCI system is a trend following indicator period. It is not the HOLY GRAIL. It is a reliable indicator for identifying a trend and gives definable entry and exit signals.Take the trade set your stop and 1st target then walk away, then when you hit first target move stop to entry plus one and wait for CCI exit or stop out. It is vey boring and %90 of people cant stand to sit and wait for a signal so they take impulse trades and lose big because they dont set stops. Figure that out of one hundred trades you break even on costs on 90 trades and make your profit on the 10 runners that you hit. Thats only if you have enough confidence in your sytem to have several losing days in a row at times. If you can say that you had a good week of trading even when you lost on 3 of 5 days and ended down %5 but followed your plan to the tee you might be ready to survive this journey. Lets say NQ generates 100 trade signals a month thats 5 a day a very reasonable and likely number from my observations, of those 20 trades a week 2 runners will make your bottom line and if you miss them tough no do overs. The posters who spend all this precious time proving a negative need to focus on an endeavor that they can succeed in rather than looking for reasons for their failure. If CCI fails I will move on to something else but I will have learned a ton about trend following systems.

    One of the reasons that the ten trades out of a hundred strategy works for me is that is how alot of regular businesses work. In the bar business the sunday thru thursday trade keeps the doors open and friday and saturday pays the bills at home. same with retail January thru october keep the lights on November and December makes it worth it.

    Backtesting is worthless, This is a quote from the article link above bashing CCI and telling a weird fable of heroic tradestation code writing and backtesting of CCI. “Testing any system mechanically will most likely result in a negative outcome. I do not believe that a system has ever existed, or that ever will exist, that you can program into a computer that will trade a market profitably over the long run.”
     
    #35     Dec 29, 2007
  6. Mr Blue,

    You keep doing what works, and you will do fine
    as I said before I have been trading every day for 10 years
    and feel the CCI has value, what is even more valuable is your approach to trading, one thing I can say for woodie is he is a good mentor for trading the markets and you are starting with someone that cares about his people.

    Are there additional methods you can apply to CCI
    "YES" but that is Woodie 301-401 not woodie 101
    and when you have as many as 500-800 people in a room
    if you start introducing other methods it would be mayhem
    so woodie keeps it simple and clean.

    keep the good positive approach and keep being a student of
    the markets success will come !!

    I wish you well


    Take Care,

    Joe Baker
     
    #36     Dec 29, 2007
  7. Boib

    Boib

    I've found that one of the best ways to test a system is to try and prove that it doesn't work.

    Good luck with your test.
     
    #37     Dec 29, 2007
  8. Well Boib that is what i aim to do. thank you for your kind words.
     
    #38     Dec 30, 2007
  9. limit

    limit

    In your quest there's one thing that MUST be done. You need to trade this with an accurate sim such as transact or one of the others that gives realistic fills. Looking at cci after the fact shows remarkable promise, to use it live in real time is much harder. Good luck.
     
    #39     Dec 30, 2007
  10. JB3

    JB3

    Woodie is a fraud with his "charitable" work.

    And don't bother wasting your time with his methods.

    His chatroom is laughable.
     
    #40     Dec 30, 2007