Dave, It appears your latest swing trade has u in 4 an opp. 2 bag the big $$s. Congrats 2 u, keep those stops & walk it on down as T would say. May it continue to go well 4 u, how's the family doing? Your youngest still growing exponentially?? Take Care my Brother!! Trade Well, Give Back!! God Bless You & Yours, GFtY!! Kelly
Hey Guys, Nice move this a/n eh? Sets up the possibility 4 a reversal. Nice Blast up on a 45, 135, & daily charts, out of an descending wedge. ADX on a 15min this a/n was XTREME @ 48 on that last pop down near the LOD. The daily is a Hammer candle, though in & of itself will need confirmation with upside follow thru, a close above the 2/10 LOD of 822.25 would get things started. On a 135min chart the 10:15 - 12:30 bar was an expanded range bar that opened near the high, closed @ the low with a large volume spike, of nearly 700K largest of the yr. Will now watch to see if Grail sellers show up @ 829ish, which is currently the declining 13520ema. A failed Grail setups the possibility of a swing high test @ 843ish. Also of note on the 135 that 1/29 - 1/30 lows of 843.5 & 837.25 were made on ADX in the 43 - 38 areas, while this last move on it has ADX @ 29. Though price moved lower, the downtrend is weakening. The ? is does it reverse, or does it merely bump around some more, b4 starting another leg down. On the watch 4 a catalyst to set it off. Hope your all doing well!! God Bless & GFtY!! Kelly
lol. Maybe you won't be absorbed , but your account will if you're not careful. Live Long And Perspire
Anyone have any input on how many ES they would take home overnight (I'm swing trading) per $10K in your account? May God bless everyone on this board!
If your trading account is the only money you have for investing, I would say zero. 4:1 risk overnight is just too much.
hi glass, are you using the adx more as a way to measure volitilty in price extremes, or are you just noticing the extremes within the context of a trend indicator? would be interested in hearing more about that. thanks, onelot
Hi 1, ADX is a measurement of trend strength. When trend becomes very strong , 1 can start looking 4 a reversal by observing price action. Another way is to think of it, as is getting very stretched in 1 direction, like a rubber band. When it becomes so stretched, it can either break or snap back. In the markets case look 4 the snapback. Buying @ this point is 1 of the toughest things 4 some. However, it isn't bottompicking per say, look 4 the point where those building positions would be forced to cover if wrong. On the 15min chart that last push down with no follow through 14:15 bar, set up a buy stop @ 807.75 avg bar length was only 2 pts. Stop @ LOD was a risk of 2.5 or $125 a lot 4 some not too much IMHO. Have to shift gears from scalpers mentality to swing mentality @ times. A similiar setup which reduced risk was on the 1min. See the very tight range from 14:09 - 14:26, ABL of .55 - .65, & the swing high of 806.5, a buy stop @ 806.75 with LOD stop = 1.5 pts. This gets it down to $75, now the potential reward is a good ? 1st target was 909.25 15min swing high, after that if it was taken out just had to sit back & watch the price action. I'd been stalking this trade 4 days wondering when a pop might occur, as I saw the desc. wedge. Of course it could have failed & flushed, which it appeared it may. However looking @ the larger timeframes it looked so omnious & the end was near, what would the surprise move be? When it occurs, it'll start in a smaller timeframe. It took me 2 entries as I was tight & stopped out on the 1st, on that last spike down several minutes l8r. Giving it time sometimes is the hardest thing 4 me 2 do, because of the whips on a 1min which I watch & trade 2. So I have to focus on the bigger picture, & just keep my stop, not moving it 2 soon which I do @ times also. Then just sell in2 strength or the mania, of course is this the part where I should have kept it 4 a position trade with only 1.75 pts. risk )!! Hope it helps 1, Take Care, Trade Well, Give Back!! God Bless & GFtY!! Kelly