April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Anthony Bolton, president of investments at Fidelity International, said a bull market in equities has already begun and financial shares are poised to drive recent gains higher. Low valuations indicate advances that began in March are the start of a bull market, Bolton said. He favors financials, consumer cyclical, technology, and âvalue stocks,â such as retailers, automakers and construction-related shares. âAll the things are in place for the bear market to have ended,â Bolton said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. âWhen thereâs a strong consensus, a very negative one, and cash positions are very high, as they are at the moment, Iâd like to bet against that.â The MSCI World Index has dropped 3.2 percent this year, extending last yearâs 42 percent slump, the worst annual performance since at least 1970. Shares plunged as a collapse in U.S. consumer spending and a freeze in credit markets sent the U.S., Europe and Japan into their first simultaneous recessions since World War II. The declines dragged the gaugeâs price-to-book value, or the ratio of stock prices to company assets, to 1.5, down from 2.4 at the beginning of 2008. Bolton, who is based in London, said that in September he started putting money into Fidelityâs China-focused fund, which invests in Hong Kong-listed H shares of Chinese mainland companies, and into Japanese stocks. Not Bear Rally Investments in money market funds in the U.S. have reached a record and could fuel a bull market during the next two to three years, he said. Boltonâs view contradicts that of Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis. Roubini said last week he was âstill bearishâ and that an economic recovery is going to take âlonger than expected.â âNearly all the broker research I read says âbear-market rally,â thatâs one of the other things that makes me think itâs the beginning of a bull market, not a bear-market rally,â Bolton said. âWhen everyone is extremely negative, I want to bet against that. If you wait for things to get better, youâll miss the rally.â Fidelity International managed about $157 billion as of January, according to Hong Kong-based spokeswoman Megan Aitken. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLukS.URK55A&refer=home You will miss "the rally" ! LOL !
I was taught that when every thing, every where says up and no matter what news comes out, we still go up the market is about to do the opposite. The fact that Obama, Federal Reserve, Banks are driving up the markets world wide with stimulus money, creative accounting practices the whole scenario is like blowing up a balloon. Sooner or later it goes boom. Europe has erased all losses for 2009, the Nasdaq is up to Fall 2008 prices and the same with the ES. What has really changed since March 1 that would justify this move with such low volume?
One may take note on how Fidelity's revenues are dependent.... Revenue growth is largely dependent on "long only" strategies" in that their funds which generate fees are mostly long.... And to the contrary they were remiss in letting customers know to leave their funds before most indices weakened.... Fidelity lives off of mostly one premise....diversification with small $amounts.... When the day comes that their funds are equally long short....then it may be possible to have no particular bullish, bearish biase at all....
Bull market Britain http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/04/20/54886/rally-monkey-fired/ <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/bga4vLTOJ4U&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/bga4vLTOJ4U&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>