Fibs don't work

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by SunTrader, May 18, 2022.

  1. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    you haven't a clue what every bank or asset manager does yet you pretend you do.
     
    #51     May 19, 2022
  2. Lol I’m not here to play a semantics game. Sell side is comp’ed for liquidity provisioning while buy side is for taking risk. Neither of those two approaches utilizes fibs.

    are there random $5m shops who call themselves a hedge fund and use technicals? Probably. But trading in the real world (qib’s with $100mm+ in size) is so far beyond what you think it is lol. Serious traders are studying python and/or econometrics and you’re telling people about this gibberish lol.

    imagine telling your friends kid (who wants to be a trader) to study “technicals” and fibs retracements instead of economics / finance / comp sci.
     
    #52     May 19, 2022
    Money Trust and NoahA like this.
  3. speedo

    speedo

    If you want to be among the 10%, don't expect the other 90% to understand.
     
    #53     May 19, 2022
    beginner66 and Leob like this.
  4. themickey

    themickey

    Well I trade/invest for a living and feel 100% sure, that if I were to introduce fibs anywhere in my decision making, I would rapidly go broke.
     
    #54     May 19, 2022
  5. speedo

    speedo

    Then I suggest not doing it Mickey. Who wants to be broke :D
     
    #55     May 19, 2022
    themickey likes this.
  6. speedo

    speedo

    There is more than one way to trade...who knew :cool:
     
    #56     May 19, 2022
    themickey likes this.
  7. themickey

    themickey

    There is, and it pays to use the most efficient methods for bang for bucks.
    I've learnt one thing from pain, it pays to be very very careful when selecting what to trade, as losses come easy.
     
    #57     May 19, 2022
    speedo likes this.
  8. ph1l

    ph1l

    I calculated prices waves using the method in this post for 27 ETFs (SPY QQQ IWM XLF XLE XLI DIA XLV XLK XLU XLY XLP XLB MDY SPYG SPYV SPTM SLYV TLT EFA EEM MDY EWW EWM EWG EWS GLD) on 18-22 years of daily prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Then I plotted the ratio of the price swing of a wave and its predecessor as a histogram (ratio is X axis, number of occurrences out of 14118 ratios is Y axis).
    waveshisto.png
    The ratio values are cutoff at 4.0 to make the graph more readable.

    The highest histogram bar is for .60432506088781 <= ratio < 0.61089381088781 which is close to the Fibonacci ratio 0.618. So, I conclude there is more merit to the idea of Fibonacci ratios predicting turning points than I first thought.
     
    #58     May 19, 2022
    beginner66 and David's faith like this.
  9. easymon1

    easymon1

    You're a bad dude. Would it be possible to disregard datapoints above 1 and post that chart with higher resolution between 0 and 1, maybe in increments of 1?
     
    #59     May 19, 2022
  10. With that and my knowledge (lets call my experience knowledge for once, okay :) I can predict, that if we go lower, 3620 will be a temp. low for a few days. Mark my words. If it works i just found some alpha.
     
    #60     May 19, 2022