Fibs don't work

longandshort · Feb 23, 2024

SunTrader said:
Here is 5minute Bitcoin from late January -

The standard method I use is to capture individual impulse or corrective waves, other than when I have a clear, well defined Elliott Wave pattern and trying to target a end of Wave 3, 4 or 5 since there is already prior defined waves to use - which unfortunately or maybe fortunately depending on ones viewpoint most of the time in most markets, most timeframes there isn't a clear well defined EW present.

So IOW I don't necessarily plot fibs from a major/minor swing high to low or vice versa, that most would think to use.

View attachment 334344 First image shows a target area (cyan oval) to look to go short if fibs confirm, but fib retracement drawn from swing high at top of the move landed much lower than where price reached. Though 23.6% level (not shown) lined up really good with prior lower swing high congestion zone it was no help for this area.

Second image has a fib ret drawn from top of wave 2 down to wave 3 bottom with 38.2% landing @ 41457. I also added a 2nd fib ret to intermediate wave which lands @ 41532
View attachment 334345

Targeted swing was @ 41532 so intermediate fib ret was dead on, but even though 1st fib ret of full wave was not as close, keep in mind a symbol trading around $41500+ a difference of $75 is less than 0.2%.

One 5 minute bar closed above that level, then rest of the time stayed below all the way down.

One last item I added, that also targeted swing high exactly, is a fib expansion (what many IMO incorrectly refer to as a fib projection). TradeStation doesn't do it intuitively like Dynamic Trader so it might a little hard to follow. I marked the two points FE. You take the range of the first impulse bar of a move, if there is one, and add to it (in this case an up move the high or subtract from down impulse bar' low for down move) 137.5% of range, and multiples of 137.5% thereafter. Note on chart image it shows 237.50%, 375.00% and 512.50%. Which is 137.5% + 100% (representing range) etc, etc.

You might be thinking, why 137.%?

degrees of a circle = 360°, then 360° * 38.2% = 137.52% so rounded 137.5%

This is referred by some as the Golden Angle:-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_angle#:~:text=In geometry, the golden angle,the larger arc to the

For some reason the reciprocal 360° x 61.8% = 222.48% hasn't shown much effectiveness, to me at least.

But I only use this 137.5% ratio with initial impulse first bar(s) of a greater impulsive wave.
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What's your YTD pnl and sharpe?

longandshort · Feb 23, 2024

MACD said:
It is foolish not to share one's Edge. The more using it -- the more profitable it becomes.
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What?

The opposite is true -- the more people that know of your edge less it works.

tuxedo69 · Feb 26, 2024

Ok, some want to share ,some don't.
Not a big deal.

MACD · Feb 27, 2024

tuxedo69 · Feb 27, 2024

Hi MACD, of topic a little but as we both trade Fibs (though slightly different) probably doesn't matter.
But out of interest can i ask how many trades you make on average during a normal (what's normal) trading day.?
And are you flat at the end of the day.

MACD · Feb 27, 2024

Do you have Skype?
can explain all with voice
otherwise to hard to go over all your questions.
But glad you interested

Sent you a PM

MACD · Feb 27, 2024

@tuxedo69 this works on all time frames -- so answer is are you scalping on shorter Time Frames or holding your trades for longer duration ?????

MACD · Feb 27, 2024

Number of trades is dependent on:

1. Duration
2. Size of your Account
3. Amount you Risking per trade
4. Your Win/Loss ratio

Personally I trade both with Scalp and Swing duration's.

tuxedo69 · Feb 27, 2024

MACD said:
Do you have Skype?
can explain all with voice
otherwise to hard to go over all your questions.
But glad you interested

Sent you a PM
More...

digging out the headphones, haven't used them since before the war.

tuxedo69 · Feb 27, 2024

Still cant find them, but see you have replied thanks.