Fibs don't work

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by SunTrader, May 18, 2022.

  1. MACD

    MACD

    It is foolish not to share one's Edge. The more using it -- the more profitable it becomes.
     
    #331     Feb 20, 2024
    themickey likes this.
  2. tuxedo69

    tuxedo69

    As you know trading is a isolated profession, and buddy's are hard to find,, Do you really think its best if i share my strategy/edge?
     
    #332     Feb 20, 2024
  3. themickey

    themickey

    What is your take for the bottom for PALL?
    Can you display your chart please on how you would arrive at that.

    PALL_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_02_21_2024.png
     
    #333     Feb 20, 2024
  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Here is 5minute Bitcoin from late January -

    The standard method I use is to capture individual impulse or corrective waves, other than when I have a clear, well defined Elliott Wave pattern and trying to target a end of Wave 3, 4 or 5 since there is already prior defined waves to use - which unfortunately or maybe fortunately depending on ones viewpoint most of the time in most markets, most timeframes there isn't a clear well defined EW present.

    So IOW I don't necessarily plot fibs from a major/minor swing high to low or vice versa, that most would think to use.

    ! BTC Fib1.png First image shows a target area (cyan oval) to look to go short if fibs confirm, but fib retracement drawn from swing high at top of the move landed much lower than where price reached. Though 23.6% level (not shown) lined up really good with prior lower swing high congestion zone it was no help for this area.

    Second image has a fib ret drawn from top of wave 2 down to wave 3 bottom with 38.2% landing @ 41457. I also added a 2nd fib ret to intermediate wave which lands @ 41532
    ! BTC Fib2.png

    Targeted swing was @ 41532 so intermediate fib ret was dead on, but even though 1st fib ret of full wave was not as close, keep in mind a symbol trading around $41500+ a difference of $75 is less than 0.2%.

    One 5 minute bar closed above that level, then rest of the time stayed below all the way down.

    One last item I added, that also targeted swing high exactly, is a fib expansion (what many IMO incorrectly refer to as a fib projection). TradeStation doesn't do it intuitively like Dynamic Trader so it might a little hard to follow. I marked the two points FE. You take the range of the first impulse bar of a move, if there is one, and add to it (in this case an up move the high or subtract from down impulse bar' low for down move) 137.5% of range, and multiples of 137.5% thereafter. Note on chart image it shows 237.50%, 375.00% and 512.50%. Which is 137.5% + 100% (representing range) etc, etc.

    You might be thinking, why 137.%?

    degrees of a circle = 360°, then 360° * 38.2% = 137.52% so rounded 137.5%

    This is referred by some as the Golden Angle:-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_angle#:~:text=In geometry, the golden angle,the larger arc to the

    For some reason the reciprocal 360° x 61.8% = 222.48% hasn't shown much effectiveness, to me at least.

    But I only use this 137.5% ratio with initial impulse first bar(s) of a greater impulsive wave.
     
    #334     Feb 20, 2024
    tuxedo69 likes this.
  5. MACD

    MACD

    How would sharing -- hurt your profitability?
    How would sharing -- help your profitability?
     
    #335     Feb 21, 2024
  6. tuxedo69

    tuxedo69

    SunTrader thank you so much for sharing, I have never studied Elliott Wave patterns so unsure on that front, but i see what you are endeavoring to do, i trade counter trend so i watch the waves being played out then if a setup suits the strategy criteria then i take the trade.
    Because as we all do watch the charts for endless hours i watch and wait for the patterns to play out.
     
    #336     Feb 21, 2024
  7. tuxedo69

    tuxedo69

    In my honest opinion i really don't know what hurt or help it would do.
     
    #337     Feb 22, 2024
  8. tuxedo69

    tuxedo69

    Continuing on from my previous post, just one point i would mention is why would a trader who has spent unlimited amount of time and money he hasn't earned whilst learning his craft, to then post all his findings on an open forum for all to see?
     
    #338     Feb 22, 2024
  9. themickey

    themickey

    There's another side to it too, some make grandiose claims about their abilities and when you ask for a real live before the fact example, then they disappear.
     
    #339     Feb 22, 2024
    trismes and tuxedo69 like this.
  10. MACD

    MACD

    upload_2024-2-23_6-5-28.png
     
    #340     Feb 23, 2024