Here's a thought for you.... Years back, I ran across a trader with the handle, "Fib Trader". I PMd him with the query, "there aren't all that many Fib indications... how do you make a trading model out of them?". He replied, "There are waaaaay more than you might think... take a close look." (Prior, I'd thought of Fibs only in the daily price chart. When I looked at intra-day, I found many more. As a "thumbnail" statement, I'd say there are probably "1-2 Fib trades EVERY day in the ES".. and often more.) While many traders want to claim, "Fib's don't work"... and "indicators don't work"... they both work GREAT*... when understood properly. FWIW... * I didn't claim "perfectly"... I just said "great".
the market is too chaotic to fit into perfect fib numbers like a snail shell or flower, but if you tell me to look for a 50% retracement, i could work with that. but thats nor really Fibonacci anymore i don't think.
Counter trends often retrace about 1/2-2/3. Here is an example of having fun with Fibs to short GE @ the key Fib levels. #1 & #2 Fib 61.8%, #3 & #4 Fib 50%.
%% SHE should have listened a lot to; L Lynn = Coal Miners Daughter. In the News\Greta Thornburg Detained by Police @ German Coal Mine Of course she is upset she says ''you have stolen my dreams'' 50% off sale is quite effective for sellers + some buyers. Put enough lines on a chart , you may hit something. I've got more out of 50 periods moving average, but they lag.
Yeah, but you only knew that after the fact. Did you know it would reverse at 61.8% as it was happening? Probably not. How many times you thought it would reverse at 38.2% only to see it reverse at 50%? Or you thought it would reverse at 50 but not until 61.8? You can't trade willy-nilly like this.
It is understandable that fibs, like pivs and m.a.s and horizontal and diagonal trendlines and channels can provide areas of interest for price action traders to focus on in order to take stats on price action around these levels. If only the fibs, etc, would draw themselves same as m.a.s and pivs do.
You trade pretty quick trades generally speaking and you understand R/R. Who's to say someone doesn't have a set way and rule on when and how to draw the fib for consistency sake and than furthermore they wait for a close above a fib level and than a close back below to enter, with let's say a 1 risk to 3 reward ratio? They could be right less than 50% and still potentially make money. Not arguing necessarily for fibs, it's just you seem to doubt every other method other than your own, almost in an incredulous way(best I can gather by just judging through text). What are your thoughts on that?