Hi! I have tryed some fibonacci they seems to work, my problem is that i have a hard time to know the difference between the different length of fibonacci periods meaning I don't really see from where i draw them the smaller and larger trends and rekyls are overlapping eathother so it is kind of hard. Regards
to understand fibonacci better, go to one of the free fib confluence classes that are put on by bernie mitchell on thursday nites. i purchased his training from going to the free class, but i still have not decided if i would reccommend purchasing his training to others.
I don't know if this is useful, but I have an old spreadsheet that plays the Fibonacci Game. It looks like this: Download the spreadsheet here: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/SS/download-data.xls and there's a (short!) description here ... somewhere
If you keep posting all this good stuff I'm going to have to create a gummy folder on my desktop just for downloadin' stuff from you! Good luck and good trading. Bsulli
Odds I can not give you, but some personal insight and some insights of others might offer you some help. I personally have observed the 23% level hold in a strong trend many times. I have seen the confluence levels hold also. John Crane in his "Swing Trading" DVD states that most traders look for perfection and that is a huge mistake. He goes on to say that he personally uses 60% which is a rounded number to him. Joe DiNapoli in his training states that he finds the levels 38.2% and 61.8% most effective in normal trend retracements. He uses 1.68% as his only projection number. Joe states that if used properly it is a good leading indicator. Bernie Mitchell actually demonstrates in his free class and free daily e-mails that fib confluence ratios hold extremely well. Hopefully I have given you some insight and areas for further research.
That would depend on your definiation of holding. I think the proper question to ask is the odds of a nice bounce off of the fib number, in which case I am guessing slim.
If you want to look at Fib numbers for all stocks all the time you can do it with TI. http://www.trade-ideas.com/Help.html#FU38
As simply an exercise. I thought it might be nice to see if a minimum retracement level could be projected for the XAU...that is if it would co operate and retrace...from the current levels my projection would be between $93.93 and $94.51...now all we have to do is wait and see if I am correct or a fool. In either case you should get an idea of how fib retracement levels or a great laugh at my expense.