Fib Series can be used for lot orders

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by kalzayani, Feb 19, 2007.

  1. as U all know
    That Fib series
    Fib(n)=Fib(n-1)+Fib(n-2)
    While fib(0) =1
    and Fib(1)=1
    ok so how can that be used in lots?

    these are my orders for today on cable

    % sure Long Long PT Long S/L
    62% 1.9426 1.9438 1.9416
    69% 1.9419 1.9440 1.9407
    76% 1.9413 1.9442 1.9399
    84% 1.9403 1.9446 1.9389
    92% 1.9391 1.9450 1.9376
    95% 1.9383 1.9452 1.9368
    98% 1.9371 1.9456 1.9355
    99% 1.9356 1.9462 1.9337
    100% 1.9349 1.9464 1.9330

    if i use 1 lot each then i get

    Possible Loss Possible gain
    0.0009 0.0013
    0.0012 0.0021
    0.0014 0.0030
    0.0014 0.0042
    0.0015 0.0059
    0.0015 0.0070
    0.0016 0.0085
    0.0018 0.0106
    0.0020 0.0114


    0.0134 0.0540 total


    The Ratio of Loss to gain
    is 24.7%

    if the use Fib =1 for the first order
    Fib = 2 for 2nt
    Fib = 3
    ...= 5
    Fib( Lots)..etc


    Looking like this for lots

    1
    2
    3
    5
    8
    13
    21
    34
    55



    then I get

    Possible Loss Possible gain
    0.0009 0.0013
    0.0025 0.0042
    0.0041 0.0089
    0.0072 0.0212
    0.0118 0.0475
    0.0197 0.0906
    0.0338 0.1780
    0.0628 0.3603
    0.1081 0.6295


    0.2510 1.3415 total

    Ratio of loss to gain =18.70% ---> Became a more effient trading method

    I think I know why as well...
    since risk or VaR...is in a way exponantial
    then Lots should be as well (Hence Fib numbers)
    ...to linearize the total gain

    Comments? TA Junkies? TIA
     
  2. That Loss/Gain Ratio

    I think cannot be reduced Lower then 16.8%
     
  3. That Ratio is minimized when the lots are increased in geometric
    order
    % sure Fib( Lots)
    69.1462% 2
    77.3373% 4
    86.9705% 8
    95.4246% 16
    99.4317% 32
    99.9927% 64
    100.0000% 128

    Lot=2^n

    Funny
     
  4. but one has to change the % sure levels

    for usd/chf
    today

    % sure Long Long PT Long S/L _______ Short Short PT Short S/L Fib( Lots)
    69% 1.2323 1.2333 1.2317 _______ 1.2362 1.2351 1.2368 2
    77% 1.2319 1.2335 1.2313 _______ 1.2366 1.2349 1.2373 4
    87% 1.2314 1.2337 1.2307 _______ 1.2372 1.2347 1.2380 8
    95% 1.2305 1.2339 1.2298 _______ 1.2382 1.2344 1.2390 16
    99% 1.2292 1.2344 1.2283 _______ 1.2396 1.2339 1.2406 32
    100% 1.2273 1.2350 1.2259 _______ 1.2417 1.2332 1.2431 64